Vadim Shovkun, a hands-on trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project, talks about the current situation in the market.

For 11 weeks, bitcoin is in a strong downtrend – the first cryptocurrency crashed by almost 60%. All support levels have been broken and there have been a lot of liquidations in the last days. Should we expect this decline to continue, or are there other facts that may affect the situation?

The first thing to watch out for is the historically large vertical volume traded on both spot and futures on Binance. The week is not yet closed, but the bar height is already impressive – 1.6 million BTC (futures).

According to the classical law of technical analysis of markets, price moves from volumetric intensities. The $20,000 to $28,000 range is the so-called bulk vacuum. As there was no trade in this area, it was not difficult for quotes to transmit instantly due to the lack of resistance. However, the situation is different in the $17,000-19,000 range.

It is also worth paying attention to eight o’clock. RSI indicator – the last impulse of the downtrend was all formed on a bullish divergence. Adding to all of the above the fear and greed index, which has been overvalued for quite some time, we can indicate the impending recovery in the market.

The Ethereum chart better reflects the oversold market on many technical indicators. The RSI alone is at an all-time low of 20 (weekly timeframe). This has only happened twice in the past two years – both times the second cryptocurrency has seen solid growth.

All this does not mean that the bitcoin price will not fall into the $18,000-20,000 region. Given that such a large drop is usually followed by inertia, it is quite possible. But the aforementioned range is in many ways a strong point of interest for a large buyer.

It is also worth paying attention to the Three Arrows Capital fund, which has 200,000 ETH in its account and has a liquidation price of around $ 1010. If the structure fails to add liquidity in the near future, a small push and forced closing of positions is likely to be achieved as quotes move down.

It is worth saying that the market will still shake and the last bottom will be updated. But in many ways, such a long drop is coming to an end and the $18,000-20,000 range is a strong area of ​​interest for a major player.

Generally the gray area is also an area of ​​interest but it is better to wait for the best offer. The probability of dropping is quite high, then the previous values ​​are restored. Then more time-consuming accumulation with a smooth recovery or access to the $27,000-29,000 region.

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