If the market cycle repeats, Bitcoin’s bearish phase will end in 250 days. Such calculations were made by analysts at Grayscale Investments.

The length, range and recovery time of past market cycles may contain important lessons for our current cycle. Read the latest report @Mattmaximo1 and @mzhao8 for more info: https://t.co/N81LZ4awoz

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) 16 July 2022

According to experts, the duration of bitcoin cycles is an average of four years, or about 1275 days.

The trigger for the transition to the bearish stage is when the realized price falls below the market price. We are talking about the MVRV indicator that FokLog mentions on the cards. In March 2021, experts dismissed the signal, citing the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The last date the realized price fell below the market price was on 13 June 2022. Previously, this situation lasted an average of 250 days. As of July 12, only 21 days have passed since the start of the phase.

According to historical data, Bitcoin’s bullish phases got longer over time. If in 2012 it took 603 days for the market to peak, it took 786 and 952 days in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

With each subsequent iteration, the duration increased by 180 days. Experts attributed this to the growing maturity of the market.

Overall, it took about four years for Bitcoin to complete the full cycle of 2012 in 2016 (1290 and 1257 days, respectively in these cases). It took 391 and 364 days from the peak to drop 73% in 2012 and 84% in 2016.

The duration of the current 2020 cycle has reached 1198 days (as of 12 July 2022). In other words, it may take up to four more months for the selling price to exceed the market price.

The record high was reached 222 days ago. This means a five to six month down or sideways price action. Experts explained that historically, the bottom of the market comes a month earlier at a time.

Grayscale Investments concluded that given the repetition of market history, current levels offer an opportunity to open positions for long-term investors.

Recall that a Bloomberg poll showed the chance of bitcoin price dropping to $10,000 higher than a return to $30,000.

In July, agency strategist Mike McGlone predicted the rise of the first cryptocurrency in the next six months.

Earlier, Ruchir Sharma, chairman of management company Rockefeller International, stated that for bitcoin to be sustainable again, it needs to get rid of excessive leverage.

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