Bitcoin price has risen from the $20,000 level. Long-term indicators suggest that more time may be needed to establish a solid foundation. Glassnode analysts warned about this.

#Bitcoin He tried to escape the weight of the $20,000 zone at a long-awaited charity rally.

In the short-term, momentum is positive, but longer-term indicators suggest additional time may be needed to establish a solid foundation.

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– glass knot (@glassnode) 25 July 2022

Experts confirmed their views on a case-by-case basis with the URPD indicator, which shows the structure of price levels realized in context. UTXO.

The $20,000 mark intensified speculators’ biggest appeal. This happened as a result of the transfer of coins from surrendered hodlers to “new” optimistic buyers.

A significant portion of long-term investors continued to hold bitcoins purchased at higher prices, indicating their low sensitivity to changes in market conditions.

Experts emphasized that there is also demand from speculators at the $30,000 and $40,000 levels. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see these coins fall into the category of “long-term investor held” (i.e. “age” must exceed 155 days from the date of purchase).

Based on technical indicators and on-chain patterns, experts pointed to a possible area of ​​resistance in the current recovery rally.

while typing 111DMA psychological level is close to $30,000. The 200DMA, whose crossing on the price side acts as the boundary between the bull and bear markets, has reached ~$35,000.

Near 200DMA (~$35,000) is also the RLPL indicator, which compares hodlers’ spending to bitcoin’s “fair value” (actual price). The last indicator for long-term investors is ~ $ 22,000, for speculators – $ 28,500

The realized price for speculators is in a downtrend. This is because short-term investors detect losses and transfer cryptocurrencies to a new category of market participants who buy at levels below the realized price, which is typical for speculators in general.

For hodlers, to increase bitcoin’s “fair value”, it is necessary to either buy coins above the purchase price or wait for coins with a higher purchase price to move into the “long-term” category. Experts said that this rarely happens in a bear market.

Often times, the metric’s values ​​grow as a result of realizing profits. And this happens when the bottom is reached, and the subsequent inflow of funds is enough to absorb the sales.

“The duration of the previous bear market low divergences ranged from 248 to 575 days. In the current cycle, only 17 days are valid, which is a relatively short period of time,” he said. experts concluded.

Recall that Grayscale analysts allowed the completion of the crypto winter by the end of March 2023.

Earlier, former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raul Pal predicted that Bitcoin would reverse due to increased global liquidity.

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