Vadim Shovkun, a hands-on trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project, talks about the current situation in the market.

Bitcoin is in an ascending channel and there is an opportunity to consider scenarios for future movement. However, the evaluation of the price prospects of cryptocurrencies should begin with the analysis of the stock market due to its direct dependence on the situation in the world.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 saw historically abnormal volumes in January. More or less comparable figures were also recorded at the end of the spring.

The fall, which fell after volumes formed in May, was “broken” in June. At the same time, the price tried to form a rebound.

No significant extremum has been taken at $4,199 so far and the bearish trend continues. Locally: the expectation of reduction and renewal of the local minimum.

Considering the difficult geopolitical situation (the crisis in Europe, the recession in the American economy, the possible tension in US relations with China, the war in Ukraine), events are just beginning to unfold. Against this background, the bottom of the S&P 500 is unlikely to pass.

For a drastic change in the situation, the index needs to break above $4199 and form a low above the last local minimum in the next bearish wave. Then it will be possible to talk about an attempt to reverse the downside dynamics.

bitcoin

The ascending channel, which has been active for a month and a half, continues to receive confirmation in the form of weak top updates.

It is worth considering the nature of the movement within the ascending channel. The receiver’s aggression grows by increasing the angle of attack. On the upside, the price actively recovered from the PoC and re-stabilized above the $22,100-22,600 area.

For the S&P 500, the lows are highly likely to be updated in the next few months. This will inevitably bring with it the first cryptocurrency. Now the price is stable, it could stay there for a few more weeks.

A drop to the $21,000 area is likely, otherwise it will work to the upside channel high – up to the $17,000 level (worst case scenario).

Earlier, Arcane Research analysts suggested that the bitcoin price would soon reach the $27,000-28,000 range.

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