Those of us who see an apple when we turn the cell phone over are pouring the petals of the daisy these days to promote the new iPhone: He loves me, he does not love me; Pro or Pro Maximum; Ultra or mortgage.

In this wait, which will last less than the time of multiple ice fish whiskeys What will someone looking for a 1TB Ultra need when they find out the price, now it’s time to review What could happen at Apple’s house after this presentation?. Will it be a great year for iPhone sales, or will it be fairly moderate?

More models, more money

In this chart, we see Apple’s annual revenue from iPhone sales from 2009 to last year. I’ll let you take a look and now we’ll read between the lines. Consider that since it was announced almost in the last quarter, each year mostly coincides with the sales of the model introduced the previous year.

For example, if the iPhone were announced on September 13, 2021, 2022 would best reflect strong or moderate sales. And the same goes for others.

An astute reader will notice some striking details. Mainly that revenue remained fairly stable between 2015 and 2020zigzags, reaching an annual average of 145 billion dollars.

This period coincides with the period starting with the iPhone 6, increasing from 100,000 million to 150,000 million, and ending with the iPhone 11, the first year they introduced the ‘Pro’ model.

During this phase, iPhone revenue slowed growth and increased slightly in 2018, the year of the iPhone X; this is one of the biggest changes we’ve seen from one generation to the next in the entire history of the iPhone.

What happened then? Average revenue of 200,000 million was generated in 2021 and 2022. Revenue increased again and substantially. The main reason for this may be a trend pointed out by Omdia consulting: We change phones less often than before, but when we do, we tend towards a high-end model. The best-selling model in the first half of this year was the iPhone 14 Pro Max, which starts at almost 1,500 euros in Spain.

If we look back a little further, A certain pattern is true (although we assume correlation does not imply causation): nothing stimulates iPhone sales more than increasing the catalog. After the first few years of logically strong growth, revenues were stabilizing until Apple expanded from one to two models offered annually in 2014 with the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. The following year, sales boomed again. Add to that the fact that there is a desire to see larger screens that Apple is reluctant to include.

True, a year ago there were already two models, but in a very different way: It was when Apple released the iPhone 5c, which accompanied the iPhone 5s, but this was a lower model that was identical to the iPhone 5 and changed its materials. Since 2014 alone, two new generation models with the latest chip have arrived in different sizes.

History then repeated itself: After the slowdown in the 6th and 7th generation, the next increase in the catalog brought significant new growth. It was the period when the aforementioned iPhone X accompanied the 8 and 8 Plus.

By then we had seen the arrival of the SE as well, but it was still something similar to the 5c: lower specs on an already familiar chassis, not a new batch.

And in 2020 we saw the next leap: the iPhone 12 went from three to four when it welcomed the now-extinct mini model converted to Plus.

We insist: Correlation does not imply causation and there are many more factors that explain the ups and downs. From the number of innovations a phone offers compared to its predecessor (something contextualizing the bad years of the 6s or Xs) to the impact of a bad commercial phase in China (as in 2018-2019) or both to a price increase like the rest of the industry Apple This also increased billing.

One of the remaining doubts as the daisy leaves is whether the rumored iPhone Ultra will change its name with the Pro Max model, or whether it will be a standalone model and whether the new terminal catalog will be out of four. five models at once

If the latter is true, we can expect an increase in iPhone revenue that we didn’t achieve in 2022 (less than 7%). perfect storm: Consumers are demanding more high-end mobile phones than before, prices are expected to rise and the novelty shelf in the Apple storefront is expected to expand. Ultra perfect storm.

on Xataka | iPhone is one of the most expensive phones on the market. Apple has a chance to raise more thanks to the way it pays.

Featured Image | Xataka, Mockup Studio.