When Gelsinger took over at Intel nearly three years ago, he set out to correct past mistakes and rethink Moore’s Law in light of new physical obstacles to further miniaturization of semiconductor products.

Although the industry has long followed a rule of thumb, doubling transistor density not only increased the speed of processors but also helped reduce the cost of production.

Reality has changed

Responding to concerns about the potential demise of Moore’s Law, Gelsinger initially remained optimistic, citing historical debates about its “death” over the past few decades. However, he later admitted:

We no longer live in the golden age of Moore’s Law; Things are much more complex now, so we’re doubling every three years. It’s definitely slowing down.

The slowdown is primarily related to lithographic technologies. Despite this, chip manufacturers are using different strategies to keep up with the rate of productivity increase.

For example, Intel plans to use 3D transistor structures and multi-chip packaging, aiming to create a chip with a total of 1 trillion transistors by 2030.

But the pursuit of productivity comes at a price. Gelsinger highlighted that the cost required to build a state-of-the-art chip factory has doubled from $10 billion seven or eight years ago. The economic underpinnings of Moore’s Law, which once fueled progress through managed investment, appear to have reached a tipping point.