It’s time to face it: The new iPhones are increasingly similar to their predecessors. The problem is not that Apple is not doing its best, but that the smartphone is an increasingly mature product. There is less and less room for surprises. Reinventing the wheel is getting harder every year.

The technological maturity of mobile phones is joining another trend: We’re keeping our devices for longer. This combination suggests that a biannual release cycle might make sense.. An idea that contradicts the reality of the market and Apple’s business strategy, making this scenario unlikely in the short term.

CIRP data reflects this return to pre-pandemic renewal patterns. During the lockdown, we renewed our devices ahead of schedule. That is behind us, and we are returning to long cycles of three years or more.

A two-year cycle would allow Apple to make bigger changes between generations, potentially boosting sales among those looking for significant upgrades, and would also better accommodate consumers’ lengthier refresh cycles.

But, Apple’s spark comes from its ability to sustain relevance and desireThe annual cycle not only creates more predictable revenue, but also keeps the iPhone at the center of technology discussions, while promoting satellite products and services (AirPods, Apple Watch, Music…).

Giving up on this pace would erode Apple’s position in the market and present competitors with an opportunity they don’t currently have.

Moreover, iPhone is no longer a product, but the core of an expanding ecosystem. Each new model is less a device to sell than a vehicle to introduce new technologies and services that will fuel growth in other areas of Apple’s business. The biennial cycle will slow down this engine of innovation and adoption.

Apple has grown a lot over the last decade, and the iPhone still accounts for half of its revenue. While some divisions (Services, Wearables) have done it better than others (iPad), it speaks to Apple’s ability to keep the rest of the company moving at its own pace.

We’ll likely continue to see annual releases for a long time to come. If a biennial cycle happens, it will be because of a market problem, not because of technological maturity, as happened with the iPod in the 2000s.

Yes we could see a subtle evolution of the current approach. Emphasizing the difference between Pro and non-Pro, or preserving the major innovations in the higher models. This will allow them to continue the annual cycle while still offering significant improvements to those willing to pay for them. And Apple has a lot of them.

We also expect to continue to see new product categories. Augmented reality has only had its first shot. At some point, it should serve to better complement the iPhone and continue to grow.

In the end Apple’s challenge isn’t so much technological as narrative. Its mission is to continue to tell a compelling story about innovation and value, even as the physical changes to iPhone become less noticeable. Your future success will depend on that narrative.

Featured image | Apple

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