In an ever-changing industry like technology, medium-term forecasts are risky and long-term forecasts tend to be extraordinarily weak. Especially those who predict how our habits will be, by referring to some new innovations. still has everything to prove. This is basically why we find it illogical that smartphones as we know them will disappear by 2030.

We told you last Monday that Nishant Batra, Nokia’s director of strategy and technology, predicts that mobile phones will be extinct before the end of this decade. And, according to this ruler, it is very surprising why they will disappear from our lives. In fact, it seems to us that it is held with very fragile forceps. “We believe that in the second half of this decade, smartphones will be overtaken by the metaverse experience,” Batra says.

The Metaverse may be going somewhere, but it still has everything to prove

Whatever its origin, such a statement is worthless if not accompanied by a well-founded explanation of the context in which this prediction might be triggered. And yes, it looks like Batra thinks she’s hooked it up pretty well. According to this manager, in order for the augmented reality and virtual reality devices necessary to access the metaverse to succeed in replacing mobile phones, more ergonomic and cheaper. And yes, there is no doubt that at least these two conditions must be met.

The problem is that right now that horizon seems very far away. Virtual reality headsets that currently offer us a very satisfying experience are not cheap. And they’re not exactly ergonomic either. No laptop. We can be sure that they will improve over the next few years, but it would be an understatement to assume that in no more than seven years, they will replace our smartphones and solve all the technological challenges that lie ahead.

Also, beyond the development of technology, at least two more hurdles will need to be broken for this milestone to happen. The first is simply that man is an animal of habit, and that cell phones are purely an animal. integrated into our daily life. day by day. And it won’t be easy to leave behind more than twenty-five years when its penetration has only increased.

The second hurdle is higher if possible. And the metaverse still has everything to prove. Meta is one of the leading companies betting on this ecosystem, but its promise leaves a lot of doubt for now. And the economic and technological effort he’s faced to make this project happen puts Mark Zuckerberg’s company in such a precarious position that in the medium term this seems like an elusive goal.

In fact, Meta has recently left the ‘top 20’, which includes the world’s most valuable companies. At least the metaverse that was promised to us has to evolve a lot to stop being as ugly and boring as the vision proposed to us today. And above all, it must necessarily give us. a satisfying experience and offer us added value. It should be useful. It’s not impossible that Meta or other companies will be able to do this before the end of this decade, but it seems highly unlikely at the moment. Almost impossible to do.

Cover photo: daniel frank