The rhetoric of the United States and its allies is very clear: the bans they put in place to stop China’s technological development, the final suppress the arms race. Semiconductors play a fundamental role in the technical progress of any developed country, so the most effective strategy to stop it is precisely to block its access to the most advanced lithographic equipment.

This conflict has profound economic, geostrategic and commercial ramifications and, as expected, leaves innumerable secondary victims. Chinese smartphone makers are likely tech companies that have had to endure much of the pressure exerted by the US-led alliance, including many of their Asian neighbors.

Huawei clearly exemplifies how sanctions imposed by the country led by Joe Biden can have an impact on the immediate future of a large company. Right now other Chinese mobile phone manufacturers they also have trouble getting hold of some advanced chips they need to fine tune their terminals. This is a result of the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. The global leadership of the Chinese smartphone manufacturing industry is at stake.

Either innovate and diversify or Chinese mobile brands will die

We are not telling. This is envisioned by Tang Qi and Zeng Liaoyuan, two Chinese experts who deeply know the tech industry in their country. The latter is an associate professor of telecommunications engineering at Chengdu University of Technology and Electronics in China, and heralds very difficult times for Chinese mobile phone manufacturers. He even dares to guess how long it will take for his country to produce advanced semiconductors on its own: at least twenty years.

And the strategy that will allow China to break free from the pressure it exerts on the economy and technological capabilities of the US-led alliance includes complete independence from foreign powers. The problem is that it takes time to develop your own advanced lithography equipment. Long time. Actually, ASML took twenty years fine-tuning extreme ultraviolet (UVE) photolithography equipment. Curiously, it’s the same time period predicted by Liaoyuan.

This expert argues that what China should do is to move its war with the United States to another level. The electronic device manufacturing industry, which is currently very heavy in the Chinese economy, is structurally deeply dependent on the semiconductor industry. And right now, China has no room for maneuver on this playing field. According to Liaoyuan, Chinese smartphone makers have no choice but to bet on innovation more resolutely than ever before. Otherwise, they cannot survive.

It is clear that China is facing a pessimistic picture, but it still has a very important trump card. And the thing is, this country of continental dimensions is by far the biggest producer From many raw materials from which the chip industry is supplied, such as rare earth elements. Western countries are trying to reduce their dependence on Chinese suppliers in this area, but as long as China maintains its hegemony, the United States and its allies will find it difficult to move electronics production beyond the borders of the country led by Xi Jinping.

Cover photo: Luca Nardone

More information: SCMP

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