The IEA’s annual report “A Outlook on World Energy Development”, to be published next month, will show: “World history is on the verge of a turning point”– Executive Director Fatih Birol wrote in a column in the Financial Times. According to Birol, this change will have consequences in terms of combating climate change, because greenhouse gas emissions will approach their peak and then decline.

How is it going to be?

In its June report, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak before the end of this decade, but this is the first time it has made such a prediction for coal and gas. So, after 2030, we should see a diminishing need for coal, whose demand has remained “stubbornly high” over the last decade, and an end to the “Gas Golden Age”, when developed countries are increasingly considering phasing out coal.

Fossil fuels will be with us for many years to come, but when we look at our numbers, we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age.
Birol added that these changes are mainly due to the “spectacular growth” in clean energy technologies and electric vehicles, as well as structural changes in the Chinese economy and the consequences of the energy crisis.

All of this is not just a result of renewable energy sources increasingly overtaking old methods, but also a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, countries wanting to give up gas, and even rising global temperatures on the planet. It causes constant heat waves.

But the expert warned that the projected decline in demand for oil, gas and coal “is not sharp enough to put the world on the path to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the target set by the Paris Agreement.” Achieving this goal “will require much stronger and faster political action by governments.”

The fate of fossil fuels will be at the center of debate at the UN climate summit COP28, to be held in Dubai from 30 November to 12 December. In a report on the progress of the Paris Agreement on Friday, the United Nations warned that the world was not on track to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. To reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 and decline sharply thereafter. To achieve the target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, fossil fuels whose emissions cannot be measured or offset also need to be phased out.

slow progress

Simona Tagliapietra, a climate expert and senior researcher at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, said the new IEA forecasts “show that the global energy transition is moving forward, albeit slowly but surely.” The transition to greener energy production methods is accelerating as technologies such as wind and solar power are now cost competitive, she says. Moreover, politicians are also interested in this issue because the transition process protects them from shocks.