Hansen’s research, to be published by Oxford University Press, shows that humanity is already on track to exceed the critical warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the threshold set by international leaders in the 2015 Paris Agreement. during these ten years.

The study predicts that by 2050, the Earth will already Able to withstand 2 degrees of heating Celsius is alarming.

The 1.5 degree limit is more lethal than a door nail,
Hansen said at a press conference on Thursday.

The problem is more serious than it seems

A major topic of debate among climate scientists is the degree of warming that will occur as carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the Earth’s atmosphere double compared to pre-industrial levels.

A 1979 study found that this could lead to a temperature increase of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. Over time, consensus has shifted towards a more moderate number: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assuming a 3 degree increase.

But Hansen’s latest research shows that: an even bleaker scenario. His study, using paleoclimate data, shows a doubling of CO2 could lead to alarming warming 4.8 degrees.

Why did this happen?

The main reason for such a high estimate is the decrease in the amount of anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere.

Although aerosols are harmful to human health, they have become a double-edged sword in the context of climate change. They serve to reflect sunlight and cool the atmosphere. Since global regulations limit the emissions of these pollutants into the air, Their decrease contributes to the acceleration of global warming. As a result, the planet is starting to feel the effects of this warming trend.

Currently, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing and has reached approximately 150 percent of the level in 1750. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the scientific community largely agrees that exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement is becoming increasingly likely.