Details of the study

It is stated that there is such an explosive increase in the amount of precipitation can harm the economy and social stability because record rainfall is closely related to flooding and drinking water availability. These natural events can lead to human and financial losses in various parts of the world.

The impact of climate on society was calculated using climate models. Now our findings suggest that these effects may be much worse than we thought. Extreme rainfall will be stronger and more frequent. Society needs to be ready for this
– says Anders Levermann, author of the study.

Researchers analyzed the intensity and frequency of daily extreme precipitation over land in 21 state-of-the-art climate simulations (CMIP-6) and compared the changes predicted by the CMIP-6 models with those observed in the past. The method they used is based on a pattern filtering technique that allows them to separate which changes in the climate system are caused by human emissions and which are not.

According to the research, while increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are seen across most lands, the strongest changes are seen in tropical regions. Significant changes occur mostly in tropical regions and high latitudes, for example, Southeast Asia or Northern Canada.

These changes correspond to the physical theory of the classical Clausius-Clapeyron relationship in 1834. warmer air can hold more water vapor. This suggests that global changes in extreme precipitation are dominated by thermodynamics (i.e. temperature) rather than dynamics (i.e. wind).

The good news is that it makes it easier to predict future extreme rainfall events. The bad news is that if we continue to increase global temperatures the situation will only get worseemits greenhouse gases.