Spain’s demographic engine has been captured. While the INE is expected to publish its final balance for 2023, the statistical observatory’s tables leave a bleak scenario that is even more worrying from a historical perspective, with the birth rate falling to minimum levels. Here is a figure to understand the extent of the collapse: In 2023, less than half the number of babies were born in Spain as in 1975, the lowest in INE records dating back to 1941. However, there has been a decline since 2008. It was 38%.

It’s a (seemingly unstoppable) part japonization Hispanic demographics.

322,000 babies. The National Institute of Statistics’ provisional balance for 2023 shows this: According to its tables, which may still be subject to slight corrections in the coming months, 322,075 births were recorded in Spain last year, about 6,600 fewer than in the previous year.

The country’s so-called vegetative balance remained in the red as the data was not enough to make up for the deaths recorded in the same period. It is mainly thanks to immigration that Spain managed to reach a record population of 48.6 million in 2023.

dating back to 1941. Latest data from INE shows that in just one year between 2022 and 2023, the birth rate in Spain has fallen by nearly 2%. However, to understand the extent of the collapse, it is useful to look back a little further, fifteen years ago, or even the last century. As a result, the birth rate has been falling continuously since 2014, until the 2023 balance is at the lowest level in the INE’s historical record dating back to 1941. They reached the world that year, in the middle of the post-war period. There are 511,157 babies in our country.

40% less than 2008. INE records are meaningful. The 322,075 births recorded in 2023 or the 329,251 births of the previous year (the latter figure is now official) have nothing to do with the demographics that Spain commanded fifteen years ago. In 2008, the INE recorded 519,779 births; This means the decline since then is almost 40%. If we look further back, the “decline” in birth rates is even more alarming: in 1976, almost 677,500 births were recorded in Spain; This is more than double last year.

immigration, key. If history is not good, future predictions are not very promising. At least if current conditions are maintained. Although INE predicts that Spain will gain a population of 4.2 million in the next fifteen years, meaning that the registered population will exceed 51 million in 2037 and approach 53 million in 2072, this growth will be fueled by a single error; Just like last year: immigration. Demographically, deaths will increase more than births, so the country will be doomed to maintain its natural balance.

“The increase in population will therefore result solely from international migration. This will cause the population born in Spain to gradually decline, from currently representing 84.5% of the total to 63.5% within 50 years.” “, reflects the INE. The projection chart is the most visual evidence of how dependent Spain is on the arrival of foreign population for growth. The institute predicts that in a “zero migration balance” scenario, a boom would leave Spain with 31.8 million people in 2072 predicts.

15 years in the red. In any case, technicians expect the number of births to increase between 2023 and 2041; This will not prevent the balance between 2022 and 2036 from remaining 14.2% lower than in the previous fifteen years. “Given the decline in birth rates and the increase in deaths, Spain will experience more deaths than births in the next 15 years. The natural balance will reach its lowest value around 2061 and recover somewhat.”

Trends… and economy. INE also shows trends that go beyond total births. For example, how has the profile of mothers changed? More and more women decide to have children when they turn 40. In the last decade, births to mothers who have reached or exceeded this age group increased by 19.3%, while births to girls under 25 followed the opposite trend and fell by 26%.

Moreover, while births to mothers aged 40 and over constituted less than 7 percent of the total in 2013, today this rate is close to 11 percent. Another clear trend that INE recognizes is the decrease in deaths and increase in life expectancy at birth; This causes a clear economic drift and leaves a complex scenario for the sustainability of the pension system in the future.

Pictures | Christian Bowen (Unsplash) and INE

in Xataka | Spain’s demographic crisis can be summed up in one simple fact: more babies are born to 41-year-old mothers than to 25-year-old mothers.