It is often seen that demographic crises are shaped through mathematics. The birth rate is falling. The fertility rate is falling. The average age is increasing. Vegetative balance is collapsing and population pyramids appear to be turning upside down. All indications are cold, aseptic and aloof. If there is one thing they confirm in Japan, one of the countries where the demographic winter winds blow the hardest, it is that the crises are clearly felt in the daily lives of their neighbors. On topics as close to daily life as baby diapers.

The best example remains from Oji Nepia, a Japanese company focused on diaper production. Or at least that was the case until now. In an aging country with fewer and fewer babies, its managers decided to refocus their business. Like? Now they will bet on adult diapers.

refocusing on work. Oji Nepia, a subsidiary of pulp products manufacturer Oji Holdings, issued a statement reporting a recovery in its business. In an increasingly aging country with fewer babies and more elderly people, managers decided to reorganize diaper production. They will stop making these for children in September. And they will strengthen their commitment to adult models, an area where they have growth prospects.

The decision is explained by the population crisis in Japan. In fact, in the same statement, Oji suggests that they will expand diaper production in other countries with much more vibrant demographics, such as Malaysia or Indonesia.

Million dollar collapse. The Oji Holdings case is interesting because it clearly and emphatically shows the effects of the Japanese demographic crisis. Your data is meaningful. For the company, the decline in Japan’s birth rate has led to a decline in sales. While production reached 700 million diapers in 2001, this amount is currently 40% lower and around 400.

a lucrative job. And Oji Holdings wasn’t the only one to notice this trend. Some time ago, Unicharm, one of the country’s largest manufacturers, had already realized that sales of adult diapers carried more weight on its bottom line than those designed for children. Some estimates suggest that the senior unit market has grown so rapidly in recent years that its value exceeds $2 billion.

The better their predictions for the future are, the worse their predictions for the children’s market in the country are. The Japanese company, which will continue to sell baby diapers until the supply runs out, said: “The demand for baby diapers is decreasing due to factors such as the decrease in the birth rate.”

At the border point of Japan. Oji’s decision is a reflection of the demographic drift in Japan, which is often described as the country with the oldest population on the planet, surpassed only by Monaco. Aging and falling birth rates are such challenges that a year ago its prime minister, Fumio Kishida, recognized that the country was facing an extreme situation.

“Japan remains to be seen whether it can continue to function as a society,” the leader warned, warning that policies to increase birth rates must be given urgent priority. “It cannot wait or be postponed.”

at the lowest. If the decline in Oji’s diaper production resonates, so does the decline in Japan’s birth rate. 758,631 babies were born in the island nation in 2023, representing bad news on three counts: reflecting a 5.1% annual decline, the eighth consecutive year of decline, and a new historic low globally. The decline in birth rates was accompanied by a decrease in the number of marriages and an increase in deaths.

What do the numbers say. For years, experts have predicted that the country would reach the end of the century with a population of less than 53 million; This number is 125 million according to the current census and is far from the 128 million figure reached in 2017. 88 million. For the first time in Japanese history, more than 10% of the country’s residents were at least 80 years old in 2023, and 29% had reached at least 65 years of age. In 2022, those under 15 made up 12%.

Such data is translated into daily reality, with clear trends such as reduced diaper production and even school closures.

Image | Harry Mortar (Unsplash)

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