The South Korean military faces a formidable enemy. And this is not in Pyongyang, Beijing or any other country. Its biggest rival is mathematics. Demographic mathematics, to be more precise. For some time now in Seoul, they have seen with increasing concern how birth rates, population pyramids and the conscript base of citizens are becoming more complex until they form an equation that is difficult to solve.

Now, with the fertility rate plummeting and the nation plunged into a “national emergency” due to low birth rates, a question arises: How will this affect its defenses? At the end of the day, fewer residents means fewer workers, less contributions, and also fewer potential soldiers.

A question about numbers. South Korea does not count. More precisely, they do so, but the picture they draw is not rosy at all. The fertility rate, the lowest internationally, fell almost 8% last year to 0.72. If the forecasts do not fail, it will be 0.68 this year.

South Korea’s statistics department recently announced: “The number of newborns in 2023 is 230,000, which is 19,200 fewer than a year ago, a decrease of 7.7%.” With these data in the table, the country’s population will be approximately 26.8 million in 2100; This figure is far from today’s 51.6 million.

Fewer children… and conscripts. Poor demographic data led officials to speak of a “national emergency” that had consequences at an economic level, directly affecting the stability of the pension fund and posing a security challenge. A few months ago, CNN pulled out its calculator and did some calculations that gave an idea of ​​the scope of the problem.

In South Korea, men are required to complete mandatory military service; But considering the number of babies born in 2022, it appears that in just two decades the country will have tens of thousands of potential soldiers, fewer than needed to maintain its troops at current levels.

“Reports show that the army currently operates with a cadre of around 590,000 men. However, by 2039, the number of men eligible for compulsory military service is expected to fall from 330,000 to around 180,000 per year.” Report published in 2022 Defense Horizon Magazine, and noted: “This trend is unlikely to reverse significantly in the short term.” Other sources suggest that with the current system, the country will remain at an average of 470,000 soldiers over the next decade.

An “inevitable” horizon?. “With our current birth rate, the future is predetermined. Reduction of forces will be inevitable,” national security expert Choi Byung-ook said at the end of 2023. Their fears are backed by data. If the birth rate is not already enough to sustain the troops in 2022, when approximately 250,000 babies are counted; The outlook will become more complex as the years and decades pass: By 2025, the number of newborns is expected to fall to 220,000, reaching 160,000 in 2072.

Against this backdrop, years ago Seoul decided to weaken its military: from about 674,000 active soldiers in 2006 to 500,000 in 2020. The premise was that North Korea would pose an increasingly minor threat at that time, and Korea itself would pose a military threat. The South would be equipped with an elite defense. Time has shown that at least the first assumption is not met. At the beginning of this year, relations between the two countries became tense with military exercises and live fire on the peninsula and the border.

Search for solution. The problem is not new. A good proof of this is that they have already proposed different strategies to mitigate the decline in birth rates in Seoul and its effects on defense. One of the most striking proposals was that men who had at least three children before turning 30 should be exempt from compulsory military service. Another strategy focused directly on the military involves further modernization of troops, allowing for a reduction in the number of troops.

“The authorities have long maintained this policy that we will move from a personnel-centered army to a technology-oriented army,” South Korea’s former lieutenant general Chun In-bum explains to CNN.

looking north. However, there are those who insist that human personnel will continue to play a key role and remain committed to another complementary strategy: the renewal of the mobilization system; This system now envisages the recruitment of men for compulsory service of at least 18 people. stay in reserve for eight years. The country even considered expanding compulsory service to women, who can now volunteer but represent only a small percentage of 3.6% in the military.

South Korea has two big problems on the horizon: a downward birth rate forecast that predicts a new decline in 2024, pushing the country even further away from the replacement rate; and North Korea, which, although not at its demographic best, has a much higher fertility rate than its southern neighbor, which it maintains as its “main enemy.” Despite these challenges, Seoul continues to have one of the “most advanced and robust militaries in the world,” at least for now, as The Diplomat recently reported.

Image | USAG- Humphreys (Flickr) 1 and 2

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