About 165 years ago, we began to extract this natural resource for the production of plastic, gasoline, asphalt and many other products. The problem is that we are doing this much faster than any possible recovery rate. So at some point the oil has to run out. But how much is left?

When the oil runs out

This question may have two answers, depending on where it is asked.

From the perspective of the entire planet, we will never run out of oil because some of it is in such inaccessible places that we are unlikely to be able to reach it. Accordingly, an amount whose approximate volumes we cannot even estimate will remain deep in the earth’s crust or kilometers under the Antarctic ice.

Therefore, the more important question is when we will run out of available oil. We have a rough idea of ​​the overall picture.

We generally know where most of the world’s oil is.
– says David McDonald, professor of petroleum geology at the University of Aberdeen in Great Britain.

That’s because plate tectonics is largely responsible for where oil fields end up, and we understand that pretty well. Developing ocean basins create favorable conditions for the rapid burial of plant and animal remains, while the movement of the Earth’s crust creates heat and pressure that converts these remains into oil. Subduction and riftogenesis can create basins in which oil will subsequently accumulate. As a result, oil deposits are more common in some regions than others.

• According to 2023 Rystad Energy research, There are approximately 1.6 trillion barrels of oil still available to be extracted in the world.
• Scientists do not ignore the possibility of the existence of oil that we have not yet discovered. Dialing numbers in this situation is risky, but in 2012 the US Geological Survey found that 565 billion barrels.

So when will people run out of this recoverable oil? The answer to this question is complex. For decades, industry experts have argued that oil remains for about 50 yearsis based on known reserves and our production rate. Interestingly, over the years, this number does not change, because with the increase in demand, humanity finds new deposits and the timer remains in place.

But at some point this balance will change. This is because the rate at which we find and extract oil is not static. As we find the reserves that are easiest to mine, new discovery opportunities diminish. We then develop new technologies that increase our ability to find new beds.

Kevin Book, director of Washington-based research firm ClearView, believes artificial intelligence will make it easier to find new reserves and new mining technology will make it easier to extract them from the ground in the coming years. This could increase our estimate of total recoverable oil reserves. “We expect a pretty significant future for oil,” Book said.

On the other hand, the demand for oil is likely to change in the coming years and extend its dominance over a longer period of time. As the world moves away from oil as an energy source through the transition to electricity, demand for oil is likely to remain stable. For example, the International Energy Agency said in October 2023 that it expects oil use to peak by 2030, then decline. This means that We may have enough oil to last more than 50 years.