Demographic crises are felt more strongly in few places than in schools and institutions. South Korea has proven this. Japan proved this. And everything indicates that Taiwan will also demonstrate this with relentless force. Taipei, where the birth rate has plummeted for years and there are no signs of the population pyramid reversing in the short term, is concerned about its wide range of schools, institutes and faculties. The dilemma is simple: Classrooms are of little use without children. There are already centers that have closed, such as in Japan. And everything indicates that many more will do this in the future.

The problem is almost more thorny than Taiwan’s dispute with China.

What do the numbers say? Like Japan, South Korea or other countries in East Asia or the West, Taiwan faces a complex demographic scenario. Charts from the National Development Council (NDC) show that the fertility rate has been declining for some time, except for a small rebound in 2012. The indicator, which was at 1.34 in 2002, was already pointing at 0.865 last year.

Regarding birth volume, the island’s records have seen a sharp decline: in two decades the number of births has fallen from 248,000 to 136,000 (2023 figure). With current data, Taiwan is far from the new generation rate of 2.1 children per generation. women, what is needed to maintain the population level. The birth rate already leaves readings in an economic, social and cultural key. There is another situation that is even more difficult in a country that frequently experiences tensions with Beijing: in terms of national defense.

Fewer children, fewer schools. With fewer babies, Taiwan needs fewer schools and institutes. This is not a unique situation. This has already happened in other parts of Asia. But that doesn’t make the incident, and the figures in Taipei in particular, any less striking (and alarming). Quoting educational sources, Guardian It reveals that 15 colleges and universities have closed since 2014, and that number may soon increase. It was recently decided to close four private universities.

The British newspaper visited one of the secondary schools that were doomed to close in the center of the capital. Its classes were closed five years ago after the center succumbed to financial problems caused by low enrollment rates and eventually fell into the hands of promoters. Tables and chairs are now stacked on what used to be a patio. His situation is better understood by knowing an important fact: between 2011 and 2021, the number of students in primary and secondary schools in Taiwan dropped by almost 22%, from 2.3 million to less than 1.8.

what will come. The short and medium term forecasts are not good. in march Taipei Times It revealed that 13 private secondary and vocational education institutions are at risk of imminent closure from next year if they do not resolve their operational problems. Although the Taiwanese newspaper does not go into details, it says that the effects of the decline in the birth rate are spreading from secondary education centers to faculties.

It was already resonating more in 2021 Taiwan NewsMore than 40 private schools are on the brink of closure due to the birth crisis rocking Taiwan, he warned. Among the centers that were at the end of their rope, the centers that provided technological and vocational education stood out, first of all, with their difficulties in “attracting students”. Closing classrooms would bring with it another equally serious consequence: nearly 19,000 teachers would be at risk of losing their jobs. .

More figures for discussion. The scenario is even bleaker when we look at the end of the decade. Guardian Note that Wu Chung-chung of the Association of Private School Educators estimates that another 40 or 50 private universities may have closed by 2028. The last slogan, “special”, is no coincidence: such centers are the first to face difficulties.

Taiwan’s classrooms aren’t the only ones facing the giddiness of demographic winter. just a month ago Korea Times He published that a decline in the school-age population in Incheon has led to some schools being closed, cut or left empty while they wait for policies to increase birth rates promoted by Seoul to take effect. The country is carrying out studies predicting that one-third of nurseries and kindergartens will be closed by 2028.

Closures are a reality that South Korea is dealing with, as well as Japan, which is suffering from a serious population crisis and has no choice but to close schools. Even China, which faces a complex demographic scenario, is worried about how a decline in the birth rate could leave thousands of teachers idle by the middle of the next decade.

beyond classes. Institutes are not the only ones suffering from Taiwan’s demographic decline. Fewer babies also means more difficulty recruiting personnel for the military; It made clear that Taiwan faces the lowest hiring level in a decade in 2022. The applicants he managed earlier that year represented 85.3% of his target, and officials spoke directly of the “major challenges” of a low birth rate.

Since then, a closely related concern has been added to these concerns: frequent and increasingly pronounced tensions between Chinese and Beijing officials. “The number of young people ready for military service in Taiwan is much lower than it was a decade ago. The air force, in particular, is short on trained personnel, and fighter pilots are exhausted by the need to constantly respond to Chinese planes crossing Taiwan airspace.” Antonia Finnane, University of Melbourne warns Speech.

Pictures | Kyo Azuma (Unsplash) and Lisanto 李奕良 (Unsplash)

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