The demographic winds of winter are blowing stronger and colder in the Asturian lands. This is reflected in the latest data from the INE, which shows that the Principality is the region that will see the brightest period in Spain, in a complex population scenario where there are more deaths than births and a balance that escapes the red numbers thanks to migration. It will experience the most weight loss in the coming decades. And not only that. The scenario it draws for 2038 shows the country with the lowest crude birth rate and the highest ageing index.

The data speaks. And they do so openly.

The psychological barrier of a million. The population estimates just published by the INE are clear. With its current demographic figures, Asturias will reach 2039 with 4.1% less population. The data is important for two reasons, one national and the other internal. First, it will mean the biggest population loss in the country. The only autonomous community that comes close, at least in percentage terms, is Extremadura, which, if the INE data are correct, will of course record a population loss of 3.4%.

The second reason is that it would distance the Principality from the barrier of one million registered inhabitants, a psychological marker that provides the best metaphor for its demographic drift. The INE shows that between 2002 and 2022, the region remained above this figure, although the margin was gradually decreasing. It was even recorded that in 2022 the community stopped counting its population in seven figures.

Whether this is the case or not, the INE figures are clear: in 2009, there were 1,085,289 registered residents in the region, in 2021 there were 1,011,792, and at the beginning of this year there were already 1,008,874. If the INE’s estimates are on target, by 2039 this population will be significantly far from the millionth population. To be more precise, it will remain at 967,238.

Total and tracking of indicators. These are not the only indicators that paint a complex demographic scenario in Asturias. The panorama just drawn by the INE positions the country as the region with the lowest gross birth rate, the highest mortality rate, the lowest vegetative balance and the highest rank in the ageing index.

If the statistical observatory is right, which largely depends on whether the current trend is maintained, in fifteen years only 8.33% of the Principality’s population will be under the age of 15; the rate is currently around 10%. By 2039, around 35.6% will have reached the age of 65; the rate is considerably higher than the current rate of 28%.

Single person households. INE offers another interesting indicator: single-person households. And Asturias once again has a significant presence. According to its estimates, it will be the second autonomous community in Spain with the largest share of this type of homes. They will have a share of 40.5%, a rate surpassed only by Castilla y León (41.9%). Extremadura is a short distance away with 38.3%.

Another reading left by the INE is that Asturias will also have difficulty relying on immigration, the country’s demographic lifeblood. Its foreign immigration balance is the second lowest among the autonomies, after Extremadura.

Purpose: to prevent perforation. Although the INE’s drawing is important, the “demographic challenge” is not new in Asturias. In fact, in the autumn, the Government approved the Demographic Impact Law project, which combines economic activation and adaptation measures with the aim of “reversing population loss”.

“The Principality Government has included in all budgets of the last legislature specific measures to control the demographic decline in Asturias, the oldest community in Spain […]”The bill responds to the same strategy, but with a broader and more ambitious approach,” they said, as outlined by the regional Executive, which outlined several action groups, including promoting reconciliation or classifying councils according to their risk of depopulation.

Beyond Asturias. Asturias is not the only region that will lose inhabitants in the next fifteen years. While the Balearic Islands or the Valencian Community will grow by close to 19%, Extremadura will fall by 3.4% and Castilla y León by 0.7%. Beyond the drawing of each autonomy, INE draws a panorama of the general growth that will see Spain exceed 53.7 million inhabitants in 2039 and reach 54.6 million in 2074, almost six million more than now. If the current trend continues, of course.

The country’s staff will increase thanks to the arrival of people from other countries. As INE emphasizes, without them, the demographic engine would completely collapse, despite the expected increase in births between 2024 and 2042.

“The greater increase in deaths than in births will lead to a negative vegetative balance throughout the projected period. This vegetative balance will be exceeded by a positive migration balance in most years of the period, meaning that on balance the increase in population will therefore be due solely to international migration.”

A country in flux. Beyond figures and percentages, the INE estimates foresee relevant changes in Spanish society. The first has much to do with immigration flows. This has to do with Spain’s growth, which will cause the population born in the country to gradually fall to 61% in half a century. It is now 81.9%. Another important change is age: the Spanish group over 65 will gain considerable weight. It will represent a maximum of 30.5% around 2055, from the 20.4% it currently reaches.

“If current trends continue, the dependency ratio (the percentage of the population aged 16 to 64 and under) will also reach a maximum around 2052 (from that date) of 75.3%, gradually decreasing from then on to 73.9% in 2074.”

Images | Jorge Franganillo (Flickr) and INE

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