The world ocean has a very interesting cycle that science has not yet fully understood. It is characterized by two extremes: the sudden warming of surface currents (El Niño) and the cooling (La Niña). As the water temperature increases, the currents carry extra heat around the planet, increasing the overall temperature of the atmosphere. Last year’s temperature records were partially provided by the arrival of El Niño, and this situation promises to repeat this year.

Prediction of ocean cycle

This ocean climate cycle, although it does not obey us exactly, is still one of the most studied and predictable, but scientists have not yet been able to determine the timing or duration of the arrival of warm or cold currents – they can only observe real temperature indicators. Based on this, some estimates have been made that can reach periods from 6 to 12 months.

However, in some cases, new research This more than doubles the prognostic range. In the contiguous United States, El Niño and La Niña influence hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which is why it is so important for scientists in the United States to understand and predict this cycle. Like a seesaw, La Niña weakens hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean while increasing hurricane activity in the Atlantic. El Niño does the opposite. Strong El Niño events usually mean wet weather in the southwestern United States, while La Niña usually heralds warm, dry conditions in the same region.

It is difficult to predict the weather more than a few weeks in advance, but “when it comes to the ocean, land surface or ice, we can achieve longer predictability because these processes develop more slowly. As for the collective prediction of El Niño and La Niña, like ENSO, the more time we have for either one, the better.

ENSO forecasts are valuable for emergency planning and resource management. For example, if droughts are likely in the next few years, state governments can implement water conservation or storage plans in advance.

But few researchers have attempted to predict El Niño or La Niña more than a year in advance.

A new method

To test whether such predictions can be trusted, the study’s lead author, Nathan Lenssen, a climatologist at the Colorado School of Mines and a researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and his team analyzed 10 complex models used to simulate atmospheric climate. Hundreds and thousands of years of sea level, air temperature, precipitation, etc. data.

These models recreated a point in time (say, January 2000) and tried to predict the climate for the next three years (2000, 2001, and 2002) because we now have weather data from that time and can test how well the model-based predictions match the actual data. The models also showed whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral was likely during those 36 months.

The researchers found that ENSO is the most predictable after strong El Niño events like those in 1997 and 2016. The study showed that These predictions can be made at least two years in advance.Multi-year forecasts were less reliable during a weak El Niño or La Niña, or between “neutral” events.

Given that the previous El Niño period, which has just ended and is already turning into La Niño, was very strong, Scientists can now effectively predict the cycle of the next two years and more