The Middle East is taking another step towards a large-scale regional war, grappling with unknowns, whose scope and development are difficult to predict, but which has already left some certainties. The most important of these is that neither Israel nor Iran seem willing to step back after the attack by Israeli troops on southern Lebanon and the missile attack launched by Tehran yesterday. Warnings exceeded. Tension is rising. And Israel is now heading towards its first open war in years with a state, not just groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, in what its prime minister openly presents as a shift in the “balance of power.”

The real question is… What can we expect next?

A look at a regional war. This is how the Middle East is born today. Almost a year after the Hamas offensive that led Israel to launch a bloody offensive in Gaza, the region appears headed for all-out war. Against the background of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Israel has entered southern Lebanon, allegedly carrying out “limited, local and targeted raids” against the Shiite military group Hezbollah, and now appears to be on the verge of a new escalation of military tensions in the region. Entering into direct conflict with Iran.

one step forward. Open conflict with Iran is key for many reasons. First, as some analysts have warned, Benjamin Netanyahu will strengthen his strategy. A few days ago, the leader himself emphasized that Israel’s coup against the Hezbollah leadership, which ended the life of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, had created a “new balance of power” in the region.

The second reason why the conflict with Iran is significant is that it brings Israel to the brink of its first major regional war in decades with a State beyond groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis in Yemen. To find a similar scenario, one has to go back to the Lebanon War in the early 1980s, and even further back to the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

Iran’s move. Although it is too early to assess how it will affect the regional conflict, Iran made a significant move yesterday: It launched a wave of missiles at Israel. According to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, there are around 200. The bullets targeted various parts of Israel, triggering alarms and damaging buildings in places such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Authorities assure that there is no evidence of serious injuries, although there are rumors about the death of one person.

Iran had already attacked Israel with more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles in April, but then the attack was warned 72 hours in advance, the Israeli army was able to block almost all of the bullets and the damage was very limited. The Pentagon assures us that yesterday’s attack was twice as powerful, involved a greater number of ballistic missiles, was harder to shoot down, and that Israeli officials learned of the threat only a few hours ago.

Shortly before the attack in April, Iran attacked the Syrian embassy; The bomb attack destroyed its consulate in Damascus and killed seven officials, including a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Tehran blamed the Israeli army for what happened and promised retaliation. Now the context is more complex. This incident motivated Iran’s attack in April, along with Israeli assassinations of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, two groups that enjoy Tehran’s support and alliance.

What consequences will it have? Million dollar question. Although Iran’s offensive was primarily limited in scope, it marked a clear escalation of tensions in the region and marked the first time that Tehran had managed to breach Israeli anti-aircraft barriers and reach urban centers in enemy territory. Netanyahu has already spoken. And clearly. “Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay the price for it. Its regime does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and retaliate against our enemies,” the Israeli leader warned.

“Do not enter into conflict with Iran”. Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian claimed through his “Do not enter into conflict with Iran.”

Analysts are already warning about the consequences and possible consequences of what is happening. There are those who appreciate the “changing dynamics” in the conflict, with “a direct conflict between two regional military powers”. There are also those who believe that Tehran’s attack yesterday showed its weakness in striking Israel hard and gave Netanyahu an excuse to retaliate.

A war from a distance? But there is one important difference between Iran and Lebanon, where Netanyahu’s troops are currently advancing: distance. Iran is hundreds of kilometers away from Israel. Therefore, the question arises of how the conflict between the two powers will progress. In its attacks in April and yesterday, Tehran chose to use aerial shells, which Israel managed to attack largely thanks to its defense system known as the ‘Iron Dome’.

Israel and Iran are two military powers. The GFP index, which measures the combat power of nations, places both in the TOP 20 of the 145 countries its technicians are responsible for analyzing. It places Iran in 14th place and Israel in 17th place.

Division of forces. Iran’s armed forces are estimated to consist of at least 580,000 active-duty soldiers and 200,000 reservists between the conventional army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Its weapons include precision missiles, drones, boats and small submarines that allow it to disrupt maritime traffic. He pointed out his biggest weakness in April New York Timesair force since most of their planes are decades old or compared to Russia in the 90s. Its tanks and armor are also old.

Israel, on the other hand, has one of the strongest armies in the region and, on the brink of war in Gaza, acknowledged a few days ago that it was ready to hold on as long as necessary. “If we have to be in this situation for 10 years, we will be in this situation for 10 years.” He has the resources in his favor, around 170,000 active military personnel, added to a robust reserve force (465,000) and technologies such as the ‘Iron Dome’. Israel and Iran also stand out with their alliances. Among the main supporters of the former is Washington. The second is an important part of the “Axis of Resistance”, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, the Syrian government, the Yemen Houthis and armed groups in Syria and Iraq.

Image | Wikipedia and Benjamin Netanyahu (X)

in Xataka | Israel already has a laser defense system. Light Shield has a power of 100 kW at 10 kilometers to fry drones and missiles