Until very long ago, China was the demographic engine of the world. Now that engine has broken down and the Asian giant is facing a birth crisis. It was such a big deal that, after more than 30 years and 160,000 children being given up for adoption, China has cut its foreign adoption system. They need children, but the couple is not up to the task; This is something that has already happened in many other countries in dramatic cases such as South Korea.

What couples have are pets. So many that it is expected that soon the number of pets will double the number of children under the age of four.

china looking for women. Although it sounds like a dystopian fantasy, the situation is so dire that China is knocking door to door to find women of childbearing age. Really. Women described their experiences of government officials encouraging them to have babies on the same day they registered their marriage. They were given prenatal vitamins and monitored by phone to see if they were taking them.

There are also statements from women questioned by authorities in their own homes about their intentions to have children. This is something that is encouraged not only by this form of abuse, but also by campaigns such as university courses on marriage and parenting. It is obvious that this is a situation that women who complain about completely inappropriate practices do not like.

Marriages are decreasing. But the problem is not only that births take place, but also that couples decide not to marry. Marriage registration in the country began in 1980, and if the peak was reached in 2013 with more than 13 million unions, by 2024 this number is predicted to fall below the historical minimum of 6.83 million marriages in 2022.

The number of couples who decided to get married in the first three months of this year was 4.74 million. This figure is well below the 5.69 million couples recorded in the same period in 2023. Actually, last year was promising, but now everything points to it because it was just a manufactured oasis. With marriages being postponed due to the COVID-19 crisis. The truth is that since 2013 the annual marriage registration chart has plummeted.

Let’s have kids. This has been causing population decline for two years now, and this trend led the Government to rethink its one-child policy in 2015. In fact, not only did they allow two children, in 2021 the Xi Jinping Administration announced that it will allow every couple to have a maximum of three children.

The problem is that couples were not and are not suited for the job. And yes, authorities already see a connection between marriages and births because social norms and government regulations make it difficult for unmarried couples to have children. That’s why the fact that they both get married and have children attracts attention.

pets are on the rise. Pets are what couples want. In 2017, there were 90 million children under the age of four and 40 million urban pets. But things have turned around, and a report from Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of the decade there will be 70 million pets, while the number of children under four will reach 40 million.

In fact, these forecasts predict that the number of cats will increase and surpass the number of dogs, as less space is needed for them to breed and less active attention from humans.

Business. Of course, these figures will not please the Government, but the pet industry will. In the same report, we can also see the enormous business forecast around this trend: $83.2 billion in 2023. This includes services, food, veterinary care and toys, but by 2025 this figure is guaranteed to grow even further until it exceeds 2023. $113,000 million.

recycle. And of course, it’s not strange that there are businesses that put kids aside and focus on new heroes. One example is nursery-cafés for dogs, but this is a problem that also affects other countries with low birth rates. Before we go any further, when we look at Japan, we have diaper companies that are switching to adult diapers because it is a more lucrative market considering the aging of the population. And South Koreans still buy strollers, but for dogs.

As strange as it may seem, this is a major problem that is already affecting the industry and will have implications, for example, for pension systems of the future. We’ll see what happens, but it’s clear that Chinese policies do not encourage couples and women to have children.

Pictures | Angela N. (Flickr), Alec @ Taiwan (Flickr)

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