First, Ukrainian military intelligence reported it, then the Pentagon, and finally a series of videos emerged. North Korean troops have officially entered combat and the first casualties have occurred (hundreds are reported to have died in the last few hours). Following the news, the question remains: What does Pyongyang actually gain by aiding Russia and engaging in conflict with Ukraine? The answer probably has many ends, but there are known data and facts that give an idea of ​​​​the scope of this “alliance” with the Kremlin. Moreover, from a country that watches every step with a frown: China.

Historical context and an unprecedented decision. North Korea deployed troops abroad for the first time in its history, sending special troops to support Russia in the Ukraine war. The decision breaks with the regime’s tradition of keeping its soldiers on national territory to prevent them from adopting “wrong” ideas when encountering other societies.

Moreover, this fear is not unfounded, because in 1992 the country faced a military coup attempt organized by officers trained in Moscow during perestroika. Even so, Kim Jong-un decided to take risks in pursuit of strategic and economic interests, pursuing a foreign policy that was pragmatic rather than ideological.

Reasons to enter. We know a few and we count some of them in these months. Sending troops can be understood as a long-term investment to strengthen ties with Russia and aim to return to the mutual support relationship that existed during the Cold War. While Pyongyang is already taking in oil (the BBC revealed its modus operandi), food and money above what is legal to supply munitions, it also aims to secure a continued flow of resources and access to advanced nuclear and aerospace technologies. Although this case has further advantages, Moscow seems reluctant to share them, at least for now.

Moreover, we cannot ignore that North Korea, with its economy weakened by international sanctions and the impact of the epidemic, sees in this alliance the opportunity to obtain foreign currency by sending workers and soldiers, as well as access to crude oil and other vital resources. . Additionally, by sending North Korean troops, Russia could free up reserve troops for other fronts, which could have a significant impact on strategic areas of the conflict. According to the New York Times, North Korea has reportedly obtained close to $5.5 billion in arms deals so far, tested KN-23 and KN-24 missiles, evaluated their performance against Western defense systems, and adopted modern innovations such as the use of weapons . drones.

Challenges on the field. The first leg to be addressed is, of course, the one related to the command structure. In this regard, the chain in the North Korean military prioritizes preventing military coups rather than operational effectiveness. This includes bureaucratic decision-making that requires approval from multiple levels, which can be difficult to achieve in a dynamic warfighting environment like Ukraine.

Moreover, as we said yesterday, North Korean troops lack experience with technologies such as drones, which are widely used in modern conflicts, especially in Ukraine. Plus, and just as important: The language barrier could make coordination with Russian forces difficult, as it currently is. After all, exposing soldiers to a freer, more advanced environment could increase the risk of desertion, a persistent fear for Pyongyang.

Geopolitical implications: China. While China may tolerate North Korean intervention because it helps prevent Russian defeat, Beijing does not appear to accept Russia providing Pyongyang with advanced nuclear technology because it could destabilize the region. South Korea, on the other hand, fears that this military alliance will facilitate North Korea’s access to technologies that could eventually be used against Seoul.

Not only this. The deployment of troops and economic cooperation with Moscow could strain relations with China, its historical and main trading partner and ally, and increase international pressure. In other words, strategic dependence on Moscow could limit Kim’s ability to balance both relationships and compromise his diplomatic autonomy.

The future of the alliance. Thus, while the alliance saves North Korea time and resources, it also raises questions about its sustainability. Although Russia is a crucial partner in the short term, it accounts for less than 2 percent of North Korea’s international trade, while China remains responsible for more than 90 percent.

The numbers are pretty clear in this context, and this economic dependence on Beijing, combined with the risks inherent in its military partnership with Russia, leaves Pyongyang in an unstable and highly uncertain position. At stake: maintaining the support of its allies without compromising its national security or economy.

Image | Executive Office of the President of Russia

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