The study was concerned not with the direct consequences of a major nuclear conflict, but with its impact on climate and agriculture. Scientists relied on estimates of the amount of dust and ash that would enter the atmosphere during such a war. For example, in the case of a nuclear strike swap between India and Pakistan, it could be about 5-47 million tons, and the conflict between the USA and Russia will produce at least 150 million tons, which will settle for many years.

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These data allowed the scientists to simulate various climate change scenarios based on modern climate models. This made it possible to assess changes in the productivity of the food industry, from plant breeding to fisheries. In particular, they showed how many calories they can produce for the needs of humanity.

In any case, the results turned out to be pretty scary:

• Even in the “softest” version of events (Indo-Pakistani conflict, five million tons of emissions), we will be able to eat seven percent fewer calories. This could translate into hunger for two billion people.
• For a large-scale collision (47 million tons of emissions) – 50 percent fewer calories.
• A war between Russia and the United States using nuclear weapons (150 million tons) will lead to a 90 percent reduction in food production in three to four years. This would put nearly five billion people out of eight living on the planet at risk of starvation.

Relatively isolated countries that are relatively “safe,” able to better feed their own populations and effectively control the cross-border movement of food resources, will continue to be major agricultural producers. Thus, the authors point out, Australia could survive famine even in the worst-case scenario. The hardest hit will be countries with unsustainable agriculture and insufficient calorie production.