Analysis of fertility trends shows that population growth could stall by 2050. After that, the total number of people It will decrease to 6 billion in the world by 2100.

what is known

A study commissioned by the nonprofit Club of Rome estimates that if current trends continue, the world’s population, currently 7.96 billion, will reach 8.6 billion before decreasing by nearly 2 billion by the middle of the century.

This forecast contains both good and bad news for humanity:

• A sharp reduction in population will somehow alleviate, if not solve, Earth’s ecological problems.
• At the same time, depopulation will lead to an aging of humanity as a whole and a reduction in the proportion of people of working age, which will place an even greater burden on youth health and pension financing.

We know that rapid economic development in low-income countries has a major impact on fertility rates. Fertility rates fall as girls access education and women access economic opportunity and better healthcare.
– Says Per Espen Stocknes, director of the Norwegian Business School Center for Sustainable Development and head of the Earth4All project.

Interestingly, in 2022, the United Nations predicted that the world population will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and increase to 10.4 billion in 2100. Eventually, according to UN estimates, the population will reach 11 billion.

Other studies have also estimated population growth. However, the Earth4All model is somewhat more complex, integrating environmental and economic variables. These include energy surpluses, inequality, food production, income levels and the impact of future global warming.