Ever since ChatGPT took the stage with great fanfare six months ago, expert Gary Marcus has warned against the rapid development and adoption of AI. But unlike the apocalyptic prophecies of artificial intelligence’s destiny, a professor emeritus at New York University told AFP in a recent interview that the existential threats of the technology may currently be “exaggerated.”
“Personally, I’m not worried about extinction, at least right now, because the scenarios aren’t that specific,” Marcus said in San Francisco.
“A more general issue that worries me is … that we’re building AI systems that we don’t control very well, and I think that creates a lot of risks, (but) maybe not existential risks in the literal sense of the word.”
Marcus developed the first artificial intelligence program (Latin to English translation software) in high school long before ChatGPT, and after years of studying child psychology, he founded Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning company that was later acquired by Uber.
“Why AI?”
In March, concerned that ChatGPT creator OpenAI is launching its latest and more powerful AI model with Microsoft, Marcus signed an open letter with more than 1,000 people, including Elon Musk, calling for a global pause in AI development.
But he didn’t sign off on a more succinct statement that caused confusion last week by business leaders and experts, including OpenAI boss Sam Altman. The signatories insisted that world leaders should work to reduce the “risk of extinction” of AI technology.
The one-line statement said tackling AI-related risks should be “a global priority, alongside other societal risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
Among the signatories were those who built systems with the goal of achieving “general” artificial intelligence, a technology that would support human-like cognitive abilities.
“If you really think there is a risk of existence, why are you working on it? That’s a fair question,” said Marcus.
Rather than focusing on more distant scenarios in which no one will survive, Marcus suggested, society should pay attention to where the real dangers lie.
“People can try to manipulate the markets using artificial intelligence to cause all kinds of chaos and then, for example, blame the Russians and say, ‘Look what they’ve done to our country,’ when the Russians are not actually involved.
“You can (could) have this escalation that results in a nuclear war or something like that. So I think there are scenarios where it’s pretty serious. Extinction? I don’t know”.
threat to democracy
In the short term, the expert psychologist worries about democracy. Prolific AI software creates convincing fake photos and soon-to-be videos at a fraction of the price. As a result, “people who are better at spreading misinformation win elections, and those people can change the rules and make it really difficult for democracy to thrive.”
Moreover, “democracy is based on access to reasonable information and making sound decisions. How can democracy continue if no one knows what to believe?
But the author of Rebooting Artificial Intelligence doesn’t think we should lose hope, as it still sees “many benefits.” Marcus said there is certainly a possibility that artificial intelligence, which has yet to be invented, could “help science, medicine, and aged care.”
“But I feel we are not ready in the short term. There will be some damage along the way and we really need to improve our game, we need to set serious regulations,” he said.
At a hearing in the US Senate in May, Marcus, along with OpenAI’s Altman, defended a national or international agency responsible for managing artificial intelligence. This idea is supported by Altman, who has just returned from a European tour where he urged political leaders to find the “right balance” between security and innovation. But beware of leaving power to corporations, Marcus warned.
“The last few months have been a real reminder that the big companies operating here don’t necessarily care about the rest of us,” he warned. Source
Source: Port Altele
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