He Arctic could be free from ice maritime in september 2030-2050 in all emission scenarios, according to the model-based study, a decade earlier than previously predicted.

A study published in Nature Communications led by University of Science and Technology Pohang (South Korea) indicates that such a possibility could exist even in a low Greenhouse gas emissions.

Sixth Assessment Report International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)published last March predicts that the Arctic will be virtually free of sea ice by September, around mid-century, under medium and high emission scenarios, but not low emission scenarios.

However, a new study released today suggests that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by September 2030 to 2050 under all emission scenarios.

These results highlight “the profound impact of greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future,” the authors write.

In recent decades, the area of ​​Arctic sea ice has been rapidly decreasing in all seasons of the year, and since 2000

An Arctic without sea ice, the team recalls, will impact human societies and natural ecosystems both inside and outside the region, changing, for example, marine activity, further accelerating heating areas and changes in the carbon cycle.

The team, led by Seung-Ki Min, used observational data between 1979 and 2019 to constrain climate model simulations. The results show that the anthropogenic impact on Arctic sea ice reduction can be observed throughout the year and can be largely attributed to increases in greenhouse gas emissions.