A jump in atmospheric temperature caused by successive geomagnetic storms indicates that the “solar maximum” is fast approaching. Earth’s thermosphere has recently reached highest temperature in nearly 20 years after absorbing the energy of the geomagnetic storms that hit Earth this year. Experts warn that as solar activity increases, temperatures in the second-highest layer of the atmosphere will continue to rise over the next few years, which could affect Earth-orbiting satellites.

according to NASAThe thermosphere extends from the top of the mesosphere about 53 miles (85 kilometers) above the earth to the bottom of the exosphere starting about 372 miles (600 km) above the earth. Located outside the exosphere space.

NASA has been monitoring the temperature of the thermosphere for more than 21 years. infrared radiationproduced by carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide molecules. Scientists convert data collected by NASA’s Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energy and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite into thermospheric climate index (TCI) is measured in terawatts or TW. (1 TW equals 1 trillion watts.)

TCI jumped to 0.24 TW on March 10, Live Science reported. Martin MlynchakPrincipal investigator for the TIMED mission at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia and creator of TCI. TCI was last this high on December 28, 2003. (Data on temperature rises have been submitted to a journal but not yet peer-reviewed).

The spike in temperatures was caused by three geomagnetic storms in January and February – massive perturbations in Earth’s magnetic field caused by clumps of fast-moving magnetized plasma known as coronals. mass emissions (CME) and less often by streams of highly charged particles. known as the throwing solar wind. Sun.

“These ‘storms’ accumulate their energy in the thermosphere, causing it to heat up,” Mlynchak said. Said. “The intensification of heating leads to increased levels of infrared radiation from nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide in the thermosphere.” Normally, infrared radiation cools the thermosphere after a storm, but temperatures remain high when storms reoccur.

Since the eruption, at least two more geomagnetic storms have hit our planet – one on March 24, becoming the strongest. more than six years of solar stormand another equally strong storm on April 24. TCI values ​​are as follows. Mlynchak said storms continue to be high but have not yet reached their March peak.

Geomagnetic storms become more frequent and intense during the solar maximum, part of the roughly 11-year solar cycle, when the sun is most active and covered by cycles of dark spots and plasma thrown by CMEs and the solar wind.

As a result, Earth’s thermosphere also follows a roughly 11-year cycle, Mlynchak said. Government scientists from NASA and NOAA predicted the next solar maximum will occur in 2025This means that the warming trend will continue for the next few years.

Changes in the thermosphere could pose problems for low-Earth-orbiting satellites located around the upper boundary of the thermosphere, Mlynchak said.

“The thermosphere is expanding as it warms,” ​​Mlynchak said, leading to “increased drag on all satellites and space debris.” This increased drag can bring the satellites closer to Earth, causing the satellites to collide with each other or full fall from orbitAs SpaceX Starlink satellites did in February 2022 after a sudden geomagnetic storm.

Satellite operators can avoid these problems by placing their spacecraft in a higher orbit when necessary, but the unpredictability of space weather makes it difficult to tell when these maneuvers are often needed until it’s too late. The solar maximum may also come sooner than expected. A recent study published Jan. 30 in the journal Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences suggests that the peak of solar activity may occur in late 2023 and may be stronger than originally predicted. If this scenario is implemented, the risk of satellite disaster increases even more.