Rebellion – for real war within another war – occurs at the most inopportune moment for the Russian Armed Forces, which are threatened by a counteroffensive of the Kyiv troops on the territory of Ukraine.
The head of the mercenaries, having good relations with members of the generals, burned all the bridges with the Kremlin in reject Putin’s demands for surrenderand announced a “peaceful march” of his units to Moscow.
Although the exact number of mercenaries that make up the Wagners is unknown, their strength is over 25,000according to various estimates.
Although Putin survived several terrorist attacks, including in Moscow, during the second war in Chechnya (1999-2009), he had never been in office before. an uprising of troops fighting on his orders.
“Over the next few hours loyalty of the Russian security forcesand especially the National Guard, will be key to how the crisis will develop,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
In confirmation of the seriousness of the situation, the Russian president did not hesitate to compare the Wagner uprising with the mass desertion of Russian soldiers on the fronts. World War I which led to the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the disintegration of Russia.
“We will not let this happen again. We will protect our people and our state from any threatincluding for internal treason,” the head of the Kremlin said in a message to the nation, in which he warned that he would severely punish the rebels.
In practice, the Wagner leader partially supported the rhetoric of the Bolshevik agitators in the Russian army during World War I, stating that he and his people did not want “the country to continue to live in corruption, lies and bureaucracy“.
Is Putin using the might of the army against the rebels?
Now the question is whether the Russian president will use his army to crush the Wagnerites who took control of the city of Rostovthe capital of the region of the same name, and sent to Moscow.
Today at noon, Wagner units were moving through the Lipetsk region, located about 340 kilometers south of the Russian capital, Igor Artamonov, the governor of this federal subject, said on his Telegram channel.
A few hours earlier, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced the dispatch of units to the “zone of tension” and assured that these “They will do everything to preserve the unity of Russia and protect the state.”
Unlike Kadyrov, the Russian Defense Ministry has taken a more cautious tone, urging the Wagnerites to return to their barracks and giving security guarantees to those who do so.
Ukraine regarded the riot as a sign of weakness
As expected, the Wagner uprising fIn Ukraine, this was taken as a sign of Russia’s weakness. “Russia’s weakness is obvious,” said the President of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky, commenting on the mercenary uprising.
The very fact that the armed insurrection was allowed to begin is a heavy blow for Putin, even if the army manages to suppress it, they in turn pointed out to the independent website Meduza and sources close to the Kremlin.