About every 11 years, the Sun’s magnetic field coils up like a ball of tightly wound rubber bands until it finally breaks and flips completely upside down, turning the north pole to the south pole and vice versa. On the eve of this huge upheaval, the Sun ramps up its activity: blasting clumps of fiery plasma that turn into planet-sized dark spots and release powerful streams of radiation.

This period of increased activity, known as the solar maximum, is a potentially dangerous time for Earth bombarded by solar storms that can disrupt communications, damage energy infrastructure, damage life and send satellites crashing into the planet.

And some scientists think the next solar maximum could be sooner and much stronger than we thought. Scientists initially predicted that the current solar cycle will peak in 2025. But numerous sunspots, solar storms and rare solar phenomena suggest the solar maximum may not arrive until later this year, and many experts believe humanity is unprepared.

So how could this solar maximum affect Earth?

“The answer primarily depends on whether solar storms reach Earth,” said Tzu-Wei Fang, a researcher at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center who was not part of the Solar Cycle 25 forecast team. “To hit Earth, solar storms need to be directed in the right direction at the right time. The increase in solar activity makes this more likely, but does not guarantee that the planet will be shaken by new storms,” ​​he said.

“But if a solar storm hits, it can ionize Earth’s upper atmosphere and disrupt radio and satellites. Large storms that interfere with the planet’s communication with satellites can temporarily disable long-range radio signals and GPS systems on half the planet,” Fang said. “This is just a minor inconvenience, but if a prolonged power outage coincides with a major disaster like an earthquake or tsunami, the consequences could be catastrophic,” he added.

“Strong solar storms can also generate ground currents that can damage metallic infrastructure, including old power grids and rail lines,” Fang said. Said.

“Airplane passengers may also be exposed to higher levels of radiation during solar storms, but it’s not clear whether the doses would be high enough to have any health effects,” Fang said. Said. However, such radiation spikes will be much more significant to astronauts aboard spacecraft such as the International Space Station or the future Artemis mission to the Moon. As a result, future missions must take solar cycles into account,” he said.

The ionized upper atmosphere also becomes denser, which can create additional friction for satellites orbiting the Earth. This extra drag can push satellites together or force them out of orbit. For example, in February 2022, 40 SpaceX Starlink satellites burned up in Earth’s atmosphere when they crashed to Earth during a geomagnetic storm the day after their launch.

“And the number of satellites has increased exponentially compared to past solar cycles,” Fang said. Said. Most are operated by commercial companies that rarely incorporate space weather into satellite design or launch programs.

“Companies want to launch satellites as quickly as possible so as not to delay rocket launches,” Fang said. “Sometimes it’s better to start a group and lose half of it than to start it at all.” All of this increases the risk of serious collisions or de-orbiting of satellites during a solar maximum.

Like the 1859 Carrington event, the chances of a once-in-a-century superstorm also increase slightly during the solar maximum, Fang said. He added that such a storm could cause trillions of dollars in damage and seriously affect daily life.

“People can do little to protect themselves from the direct hit of a solar storm, but we can prepare for that by changing satellite orbits, landing planes, and identifying vulnerable infrastructure,” Fang said. Said. As a result, more accurate forecasts of sunny weather are needed to help us prepare for the worst.