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The risk of deadly heat waves will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase. Europe will be particularly affected, according to a new study by ETH
The risk of deadly heat waves will become more frequent and heat-related excess mortality will increase. Europe will be particularly affected, according to a new study by ETH Zurich.
Heatwaves like the ones we’re experiencing right now especially deadly to the elderly, the sick and the poor. The 2003 heat wave in Europe, which caused temperatures on that continent to reach 47.5°C, was one of the worst natural disasters in decades. declared from 45 thousand to 70 thousand victims within a few weeks. Forests burned, crops withered in the fields, and the city’s emergency rooms were packed to capacity.
Worldwide, the costs amounted to about US$13 billion. However, the public is still less aware of the risks of heatwaves than other extreme weather events. This is a problem as a new study published in the journal natural communications. Heatwaves like the one we saw in 2003. they may become the new normal in the coming years.
Photo: File Reuters
Researchers at the Institute for Environmental Solutions ETH Zurich collaborated on the study with an international team of epidemiologists. Since 2013 they systematic collection of data on daily excess mortality associated with heat in 748 cities and communities in 47 countries in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the USA and Canada.
The researchers used this dataset to calculate the relationship between daily average temperature and mortality in 748 locations. As a result, they were able to establish perfect temperature in every placewhere excess mortality is lowest. For example, in Bangkok this value is 30°C, in São Paulo it is 23°C, in Paris it is 21°C and in Zurich it is 18°C.
Every tenth of a degree above this ideal value increases excess mortality.. “Not all heat is the same,” explains Samuel Luthy, lead author of the study and graduate student of David Bresh, a professor of weather and climate risk. “The same temperature has a very different effect on increased heat-related mortality among the populations of Athens and Zurich.”
Photo: File Reuters
It depends not only on temperature, but also on physiology (acclimatization), behavior (long sleep in the middle of the day), urban planning (green spaces versus concrete), demographic structure of the population and the local health system. .
Using this ideal value, the researchers calculated how excess mortality would evolve with global average temperature rises of 0.7° (2000 value), 1.2° (2020 value), 1.5° and 2°. They used five climate models. especially powerful, known as SMILE (large sets with single model initial conditions).
“We ran the same model up to 84 times, each round with slightly different weather conditions.. This gave us a variety of possible weather systems that could occur if there is a certain amount of CO2 in the atmosphere,” Luthi explains in a statement. The researchers then combined this data with an epidemiological model to calculate the corresponding heat-related mortality.
Previous projections of heat-related mortality were mainly based on calculations using a climate model over a certain period of time. “Our method allows us much more effective in quantifying extreme events in the climate system and reducing uncertainties that arise due to the peculiarities of certain models. Using supercomputers, Luthi calculated the impact of more than 7,000 years of physically possible weather events on heat-related mortality. The corresponding data set is over 1 terabyte in size.
Photo: File Reuters
The results show that the risk of heat waves with high excess mortality has already increased dramatically over the past 20 years. “The excess mortality from the hot summer of 2003 used to be considered an extreme once-in-a-century event. We now expect this to happen every 10 to 20 years,” says Luthi.
Heat-related mortality figures that were considered very unlikely in 2000 (once every 500 years)will occur 14 times every 100 years under Scenario 2°.. Assuming a lack of heat adaptation, the likelihood of mortality during such extreme heat waves would increase 69 times.
Regions at particular risk of increased heatwaves include Persian and Atlantic coasts of the USA, Pacific coast of Latin America, Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean region. Even under temperate scenarios, hot summers in these regions could result in 10% of all deaths in the country being heat-related.
Paris was particularly affected by the heat of 2003. Then the figure was 5-7%; this means that only in the French metropolis the heat wave caused premature death (due to dehydration, heat stroke and heart attack) about 2,700 people.
“According to our calculations, up to 15% of deaths in Paris could be heat related in the future“Luti says.
(Europe Press)
Source: Aristegui Noticias
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