The International Space Station (ISS) will be decommissioned in 2030 after more than 32 years of continuous operation. Naturally, there are questions about what will replace the station, which serves as a bastion of vital research and interagency collaboration in space. In the past, China has said that the Tiangong (celestial palace) space station will be a successor and rival to the ISS, offering astronauts from other countries an alternative platform to conduct research in low Earth orbit (LEO). As part of this plan, China recently announced plans to double the size of Tiangong in the coming years.

The announcement was made during the 74th International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2023) held in Baku, Azerbaijan last Wednesday, October 4. According to the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), three new modules will be added to Tiangong, which currently consists of the Tianhe Core Cabin Module (CMM) and two Laboratory Cabin Modules (LCM) – Wenhian (“Seek the Heavens”) and Mengtian (“Dreams of Heaven”). This expansion will be accompanied by an extension of the operational life of the station.

According to the statement made by CAST, Tiangong will remain in operation for more than 15 years, which is 10 years longer than previously announced. This means China plans to keep Tiangong operational until 2037 or later, several years after the ISS is decommissioned and deorbited. At the time of this writing, the station has been fully operational since late 2022 (894 days in total) and has been busy for the last 764 days. The station accommodated 15 taikonauts (up to three at a time) at orbital altitudes between 340 and 450 km (210 and 280 mi).

After adding the additional three modules, the station will weigh 180 metric tons (198 US tons), which is still only 40% of the mass of the ISS. With all this, the upgraded Tiangong can reportedly accommodate a maximum crew of six; this is slightly less than the ISS’s current crew capacity of seven. The plans are consistent with China’s repeated claims that it aims to become a “great power” this century to rival NASA and other major space agencies. Last year, Chinese state media reported that “several countries” wanted to send their astronauts to the Chinese space station.

Tiangong’s theme was one of two Global Network Forums organized by China Space Station (CSA) at IAC 2023, which included “International Cooperation on China Space Station” and “International Lunar Research Station” (ILRS). ILRS, a joint effort between China and Roscosmos (Russia), also reflects China’s desire to become a superpower in space. When first announced in June 2021, China stated that ILRS would compete with the Artemis program and implied that the decision was a direct response to NASA’s Artemis deal.

China is now seeking international partners for both projects. Unfortunately, China’s efforts to include other countries in the Tiangong program suffered a minor setback when the European Space Agency (ESA) announced earlier this year that it would not participate. ESA has been in negotiations with China for years and has expressed interest in sending European astronauts to Tiangong. But in January, ESA Director General Joseph Aschbacher said at the annual press conference in Paris:

“We are very busy maintaining and fulfilling our commitments and activities on the International Space Station, where many of our international partners are working together. We do not currently have a budgetary or political green light or intention to participate in this second space station; China is joining the space station.”

In response, the Global Times (Chinese state media) quoted assistant professor and military analyst Song Zhongping as saying that the decision was a result of “Europe being increasingly hijacked by the United States amid the ongoing and protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict.” Song added that ESA’s decision to abandon years-long manned space cooperation with China “is clearly short-sighted and shows that the conflict of the US-led camp has led to a new space race.”

Space race would be an accurate term, as China pursues a policy of competition with NASA, as it is isolated from the ISS program and banned from cooperating with NASA. Tiangong has become the symbol of this new race, and China hopes it will fill the void left by the ISS and become a new platform for profitable space exploration. Meanwhile, Russia has announced similar plans to build the next station consisting of six modules capable of carrying four astronauts. They also invited BRICS partners (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) to add a module to this station.