This Sunday, Argentines will go to the polls to elect the President of the Republic in a dramatic economic and social scenario dominated by emotional political behavior, which election expert Daniel Zovatto metaphorically defines as “Stand on the edge of a cliff, jump into the void and see what happens.”

“Argentine society is approaching these elections in a very emotional situation. “very desperate, very upset, with a lot of fear and a lot of pain”– warns Zovatto (Santa Fe, Argentina, 1957), regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), doctor of international law at the Complutense University of Madrid and one of the most insightful analysts of Latin American reality.

“The word that defines this process is uncertainty, but there is an additional element: the extremely emotional and very irrational nature of this choice, which introduces a component of unpredictability into the results,” he adds in an interview with the agency. EFE director of IDEA, who is in Buenos Aires this Sunday to closely monitor the electoral process.

The most important elections in forty years

According to Zovatto, “this is the most difficult choice, but at the same time most importantly, since Argentina returned to democracy.” in 1983.

The situation in the country is dramatic: last year Argentina’s per capita GDP was similar to that of 1974. had nine “defaults” (debt defaults) and fourteen economic recessions from 1950 to 2016, and poverty has risen sharply.”

“It is obscene that a country like Argentina, one of the largest economies in Latin America, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about $610 billion.According to the World Bank, poverty is over forty percent,” he points out. “The community is extremely exhausted, frustrated and despairing at the lack of results.”

These circumstances lead the IDEA director to believe that “this is the most important election from 1983 to the present” because “The consequences of this decision for Argentina will be enormous.”

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“We are going into an election in which 72% of citizens say they are dissatisfied with how democracy works and when There are 50% who don’t care about an undemocratic government. as long as it solves their problems,” says Zovatto, referring to a recent survey conducted by the Australian University of Buenos Aires, polling company Poliarquía and the Bar Association of the City of Buenos Aires.

“We have a terrible economic situation. severe social deficit”, – notes Zovatto. This is why “half of Argentines are looking for someone to come and solve their problems. If it’s democratic, that’s good! And if not, that’s fine too!” he adds.

The end of the Kirchnerism-Macrism duality.

Between 1983 and 2000, Argentine society chose the binary logic of two great political forces: Peronism and radicalism. “But it exploded with the crisis of 2001, when it was announced: “Let them all go!” recalls Zovatto, who points out that “from these ashes arose Kirchnerism and Macrism (of today’s former President Mauricio Macri, 2015-2019), which lasted another twenty years.”

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“The collapse of the traditional political party system opens the door anti-caste and populist candidates such as Javier Miley. He is a product of failure,” says the regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, referring to the far-right libertarian presidential candidate who appears to be the favorite in pre-election polls.

Miley won PASO (simultaneous and mandatory open primaries held on August 13) and is very well positioned in the polls; His offering is in great demand in a very important sector of society, he explains.

According to this analyst, it is “extremely unlikely” that if Miley wins, the most radical sections of Kirchnerism will take to the streets to destroy the government. “unless the election results are called into question.”

“Until now, Argentina had a very important feature that distinguished it from other countries in the Americas, namely that political power has never interfered with electoral power; There was always a relationship of respect and acceptance,” he emphasizes.

But what Zovatto is fully convinced of is that Argentina’s next president faces a problem. “a brutal challenge to governance.”

(EFE)