The rate of melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet will accelerate in the coming decades and is now an “inevitable” consequence of climate change, a new study has found.

Even if countries manage to limit greenhouse gas emissions and limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels (the goal world leaders agreed to in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement), melting will be higher than in the previous period. It will continue three times faster. rest of the countries. 21st century compared to the 20th century.

“We seem to have lost control of the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet,” said lead study author Caitlin Naughten, a research scientist at the British Antarctic Survey who specializes in ocean and ice modelling. “If we wanted to preserve it in its historic state, we would have had to act on climate change decades ago.”

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has stored enough water to cause sea levels to rise by as much as 16.4 feet (5 meters), according to the statement. The biggest contribution to sea level rise in the region currently appears to come from floating ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea, which are melting as a result of rising Southern Ocean temperatures.

Noten and his colleagues ran supercomputer simulations to estimate how much of this melting could be prevented by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Taking into account climate events and variability, such as global impacts caused by El Niño, the researchers found little change in the rate of ice loss between the four different scenarios outlined in the Paris Agreement.

The three scenarios that predict the smallest increase in global average temperature are 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, 2 C (3.6 F) above pre-industrial levels, and 2 to 3 C (2.6 to 5.4 F) above pre-industrial levels . The statement stated that it had almost the same effect on the melting rate in the Amundsen Sea.

The scenario with the highest increase in average global temperature – which, while unlikely, would result in a rise of 4.3 C (7.7 F) above pre-industrial levels – differed from the bottom three scenarios, but only after 2045, when more ice would melt. It is estimated according to other scenarios. The expected melting by then was comparable across the four scenarios, according to the study published Monday (October 23) in the journal Nature Climate Change.

The consequences are bleak, but predicting the effects of climate change can help us prepare for them. “The good thing is that by being aware of this situation in advance, the world will have more time to adapt to impending sea level rise,” Noten said. said.

Our actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions may not prevent the “collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” but slowing the rate of sea level rise is still a vital task, according to the study.

“We must not stop working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels,” Noten said. “The slower sea level change occurs, the easier it will be for governments and society to adapt, even if it cannot be stopped.” Source