Astronomers are surprised to realize that the Sun’s increased activity looks set to peak much earlier in the current cycle than predicted. Previous modeling promised that the peak of solar activity would be in July 2025, but those dates have now been moved to the summer or autumn of 2024. But the most unpleasant thing is that there is no scientific explanation for this.

World civilization is becoming increasingly dependent on electricity, electronics and satellites. Space weather affects all of this to some degree. The second depends on the current activity of the Sun, which shows a series of cycles. The 11-year activity cycle of the Sun, during which it passes through its minimum and maximum, is of great importance for the activities of people on Earth.

NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been creating models to predict solar activity for many years. The main criterion for its determination remains the fixation of “old” spots and spots in the new cycle. They differ from each other in several ways, as their magnetic fields are strong enough to reveal this.

The cycle can be considered complete when the old spots are gone, but it may take months to progress to the next cycle. During an in-depth analysis of solar activity events in the previous cycle, NASA scientists noted that old spots in the previous cycle were last observed in December 2019, while the dividing line between the previous cycle and the new cycle was drawn in December. 2021. Accordingly, it may take a long time for the activity to reach its peak, despite the predictions.

Based on a new analysis, NASA researchers have offered an alternative forecast for the peak of solar activity in the current cycle. According to them, the peak of the cycle will occur a year earlier – in the middle – at the end of 2024, and the number of sunspots will be twice as much as the official forecast. Solar observations now support this alternative prediction, but it has not yet been explained why this is the case. If approved, the alternative forecast would improve models and make space weather forecasts better.

Emissions of particles and matter from the Sun during its active behavior can be as spectacular as the auroras at the poles and even farther south. High-energy particles heat the upper layer of the atmosphere, causing it to expand and slowing down satellites in low orbits. They can also disable power lines and disrupt radio communications and navigation. For a civilization that is increasingly dependent on electricity and electronics, it is necessary to learn to predict malfunctions and prevent them at the design stage or during operation. Source