Solar weather forecasters have finally admitted that their predictions for the current solar cycle are very wrong. Now researchers say we are rapidly approaching an explosive peak in solar activity. Earlier this year, Live Science reported that the solar maximum will likely occur harder and earlier than predicted.

The sun is constantly changing. About every 11 years, our home star moves from a dormant period known as a solar minimum to a peak of solar activity known as a solar maximum (when dark sunspots block the sun and often produce powerful solar storms). Then the star returns.

The current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in early 2019. At the time, an expert group consisting of scientists from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), NOAA, and NASA predicted that the solar cycle would likely peak at some point in 25 2025, and would be smaller in comparison . to mean cycles such as its predecessor, the 24th solar cycle.

But other solar scientists soon realized that the Sun was not following SWPC’s predictions. And in June of this year, Live Science reported that solar activity was increasing faster than expected, predicting that the solar maximum would likely occur by the end of 2024.

On October 25, SWPC finally released a “revised forecast” for the 25th solar cycle, acknowledging that its initial forecasts were “no longer reliable enough for SWPC customers” such as private space exploration and satellite companies. The new update said that “solar activity will increase faster and peak at a higher level than originally anticipated” and that the solar maximum will likely begin between January and October next year.

There are many signs this year that the solar maximum will be earlier and more active than expected, including sunspots reaching a 20-year peak, powerful X-class solar flares, large aurora borealis in lower latitudes, and higher temperatures in the upper atmosphere. as well as the appearance of streaks of light known as airglow and the disappearance of silvery or nocturnal clouds.

It’s not clear why the SWPC predictions were wrong, or why it took so long for scientists to update their predictions even though the warning signs had been there for years. For example, in 2020, a team of scientists led by solar physicist and deputy director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, Scott McIntosh, used historical data on sunspots and the magnetic field to predict that the solar maximum would be more active. occurs earlier. than expected.

A more active peak in solar activity could cause disruptions on Earth: If major solar storms hit our planet, they could cause radio outages, damage energy infrastructure, irradiate airline passengers and astronauts, and disable GPS and Internet satellites. fall from the sky.

A more active solar maximum poses “a greater risk to these critical technologies and services,” NOAA officials wrote in their updated forecast.

Wildlife experts also warn that a more active solar maximum could disorient animals that depend on the Earth’s magnetic field for navigation, such as large whales and migratory birds.

To avoid further confusion before the end of the 25th solar cycle, SWPC will, for the first time in its history, switch to a more flexible forecast system that will be updated at the beginning of each month.

“We expect our new experimental forecast to be much more accurate than the panel’s 2019 forecast, and unlike previous solar cycle forecasts, it will be continuously updated each month as new sunspot observations become available,” said Mark Misch, a physicist at the Joint Institute. from the Department of Environmental Research at the University of Colorado Boulder and is SWPC’s principal investigator, the statement said. “This is a pretty significant change.” Source