While humanity’s efforts to limit the emissions that cause global warming are not enough to prevent the world from warming to catastrophic levels, early developments suggest progress is possible.

While the climate trajectory remains poor, it has improved since countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and pledged to limit global temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, preferably to a safer 1.5C. And the introduction of renewable energy offers a rare glimmer of hope.

Heating

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said once the Paris Agreement was adopted, global dependence on fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) would lead the world to a 3.5 degree increase in temperatures by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial period. time.

Warming of this magnitude would lead to catastrophic climate disasters, including the risk of worldwide mass extinctions and the melting of glaciers and permafrost, which could cause sea levels to rise by meters and create uninhabitable conditions across much of the planet.

After eight years of countries committing to reduce carbon emissions, they have cut that figure slightly, putting the world on a still-disastrous temperature path of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees by the end of the century, according to data from the UN Environment Programme. moon.

The IEA said ten degrees of warming would add up to a negative impact on the climate, but the modest drop in temperature “reflects the progress made in transitioning to a lower-emissions energy system since 2015.” But the agency adds that this is “still far from what is needed.”

Peak emissions

According to the UN, annual emissions of greenhouse gases that cause climate change have increased by nearly nine percent since COP21. The increase led to record CO2 concentrations last week, the World Meteorological Organization said₂In 2022, there will be methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere. However, the growth rate has slowed significantly.

Climate experts at the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that emissions must peak by 2025 to meet the Paris targets. To limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, emissions need to be cut by almost half by 2030.

The latest forecasts from the Institute for Climate Analysis show that global emissions could peak in 2024, or even this year.

In its pre-Paris assessment, the IEA predicted that carbon dioxide emissions would be associated with the energy sector, which is responsible for more than 80 percent of CO2.₂The amount of gas emitted by human activity could reach 43 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2030. But the agency now says current efforts mean that figure will be 35 Gt by 2030. It was stated that this difference is “equal to the current total energy sector emissions of the United States and the European Union.”

Growth of renewable energy sources

Three technologies – solar power, wind and electric vehicles – have largely lagged the improvement in global warming forecasts since 2015.

According to OCED’s estimates, “Solar PV systems are expected to reduce emissions by approximately three Gt in 2030, roughly equivalent to the emissions of all the world’s cars on the road today.”

By 2030, wind energy is expected to reduce emissions by two gigatons and electric vehicles (EVs) by approximately one gigaton, compared to pre-Paris scenarios. Photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy are expected to account for approximately 15 percent of global electricity production in 2030; This is seven times more than wind energy and three times more than the IEA predicted in 2015.

At the time, electric car fleets seemed like an impossible dream. The IEA predicts that electric vehicles will account for less than two percent of car sales by 2030. According to estimates, by the end of the decade, more than one-third will purchase electric cars.

And the numbers are accelerating. Pointing out the 50 percent increase in solar energy capacity and the 240 percent increase in electric vehicle sales, the IEA said, “The adoption of clean energy technologies has increased at an unprecedented rate in the last two years.”

The IEA attributes the progress, which was unthinkable before the Paris Agreement, to cost-cutting and public policy initiatives by China, the United States and Europe, among others. Five-year plans in China have increased targets for solar energy and lowered global costs.

Offshore wind projects in Europe have “kickstarted a global industry” and electric two-wheelers and buses have “seen significant adoption in India and other emerging markets,” the agency said.