The first crewed landing on NASA’s Artemis lunar probe is unlikely to occur before 2027, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office. A GAO report released Nov. 30 found that slow progress on both SpaceX’s Human Landing System (HLS) and Axiom Space’s new moon suits will prevent NASA from reaching its current goal of landing on the moon by the end of 2025. Mission Artemis 3.

A significant part of the report was devoted to the development of HLS. According to the GAO, SpaceX “faces several challenges that limit this progress and jeopardize its ability to support the Artemis III mission in 2025.” These challenges include an “ambitious” schedule, delayed development progress to date, and significant technical work.

GAO has, in fact, argued since the beginning of the HLS program that the Starship lunar lander is unlikely to be ready before the end of 2025, given the time required to complete any major project at NASA.

“We find that if development of HLS takes the same number of months on average as NASA’s major projects, the Artemis III mission would likely occur in early 2027,” the report said. “The complexity of human spaceflight suggests that it is unrealistic to expect the HLS program to complete development more than a year faster than the average for major NASA projects, most of which are not human spaceflight projects.”

The report also notes that SpaceX’s work on HLS has been slower than expected, with more than half of the overall schedule spent reaching the preliminary design verification stage, compared to the 35% average for major NASA projects. SpaceX has compressed the remaining schedule by pushing back “several significant events” from 2023 to 2024 that were not mentioned in the report.

The GAO report also noted that the first Starship/Super Heavy test flight in April was “incomplete.” (The report mentions, but does not estimate, a second launch on November 18, which is beyond the scope of the study.) The remaining major technical milestones include verification of the performance of the Raptor engine running on Starship/Super Heavy and the transfer of cryogenic fuel in space. The latter must be completed before a critical analysis of the Starship lander’s design can be completed, NASA officials told GAO.

NASA officials said in August that they received an updated Starship HLS development program from SpaceX, but the agency did not disclose details of that program.

Jim Free, NASA’s deputy administrator for research systems development, said of SpaceX’s HLS development at a Nov. 17 meeting of NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Advisory Board: “Our overall timeline for them continues as we identify technical milestones.” .” Board. “We’re looking at how the lander integrates with the rest of the program.”

He noted at that meeting that the Starship lander was not the only new element developed for Artemis 3. “Yes, the lander is absolutely necessary. We can’t go anywhere without him. But we also can’t go anywhere without costumes.”

The GAO report also mentions possible delays in the development of these Axiom suites. The company is still in the early stages of developing the costume, with a preliminary design preview planned for November. As of November 30, neither NASA nor Axiom had reported completion of this review.

The report notes that Axiom plans to redesign portions of the suit based on a design previously developed by NASA to meet the agency’s requirements that the suit provide 60 minutes of emergency life support capability. He warns that this could delay the overall development of the spacesuit.

“Axiom’s remaining work to develop and supply components of the suit could result in potential delays,” the GAO said. This includes supply chain issues, such as critical components coming from suppliers with lead times of 12 to 18 months.