Biologists from Italy evaluated possible scenarios for the future of the green skullcap in the Mediterranean under conditions of global warming. The results of computer simulations showed that the situation for these endangered marine animals is not as bleak as some researchers claimed.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing the surface temperature of seas to increase worldwide, which is seriously affecting marine life. One of the most vulnerable in this respect are sea turtles, the gender of their offspring depends on the incubation temperature. In the past, scientists have already studied the effects of global warming on various sea turtle species, but research on the green turtle population (Chelonia mydas) very little in the Mediterranean.

Biologist Chiara Mancino took it upon herself to correct this oversight (Chiara Mancino) from Sapienza University (Rome, Italy). Together with his colleagues, he developed a model that allows us to predict the suitability of different places on the Mediterranean coast for nesting green turtles.

According to the results of the research published by the magazine Scientific ReportsScientists concluded that in the worst-case scenario, nesting temperatures would increase. Chelonia mydas It could expand by more than 60% compared to the current one by 2100 in areas of the Mediterranean basin.

First, the authors evaluated the predictive abilities of their model. To do this, they analyzed data on 178 confirmed green turtle nesting sites recorded from 1982 to 2019, mostly concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coasts of Turkey and Cyprus.

The researchers confirmed the predictive power of the model in terms of matching its predictions with actual data from previous years. They also identified the factors that most influence the suitability of the area for breeding green turtles. These included sea surface temperature, water salinity and population density.

The scientists then modeled four scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions in the current century. They all predict that the Mediterranean will warm towards the end of the 21st century. As it turned out, the considered climate scenarios are associated with an increase in the nesting area of ​​green turtles in the Mediterranean. The most significant growth is expected to occur at the highest levels of CO2 emissions and rising temperatures.

Under this option, the nesting area would expand by 62.4% and cover 67% of the Mediterranean basin territory, compared to the current figure of 5%. As a result, they are suitable for reproduction. Chelonia mydas It will become the coastline stretching from North Africa to Algeria, most of Italy and Greece, and even the southern coast of the Adriatic Sea.

But researchers warned that expanding the nesting range of green turtles in densely populated areas of the central and western Mediterranean would lead to increased contact with people on urban beaches. This may negatively impact placement success.