Scientists from Victoria University of Wellington have published new data predicting that New Zealand could experience a devastating 15-metre tsunami approximately every 580 years. Their research, published on the JGR portal, warns of a potential threat to coastal communities.

Tsunamis tend to have devastating effects on coastal areas, and their rarity in instrumental data makes it difficult to predict future risks. Scientists have previously used statistical data from earthquakes to quantify the tsunami threat. However, this study is the first to use a physically based synthetic earthquake catalog to predict the probability of a tsunami in the region.

According to the researchers, by analyzing a 30,000-year earthquake catalog they were able to capture a wide range of potential tsunami sources. Modeling of land surface deformation and subsequent tsunamis based on data from 2,585 earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.0 has shown that displacement of the Hikuranga and Tonga-Kermadec subduction zones can trigger tsunamis up to 28 meters high off the coast of New Zealand.

These results confirm that using earthquake simulations for probabilistic tsunami models can be an important tool in predicting the hazards of future events. They also formed the basis for the development of new probabilistic models to deal with the possible consequences of a tsunami.

Overall, this study is an important step forward in understanding and quantifying the risk associated with tsunamis that can pose a threat to coastlines around the world. New data helps better understand and prepare for this potentially dangerous element. Source