For the first time, researchers have modeled all stages of the greenhouse effect, revealing that it could turn our green planet into an uninhabitable “hell”. they said on Monday in the coming centuries. According to NASA, Earth would need to warm just a few tens of degrees to trigger rapid warming that would make it as uninhabitable as Venus, a planet with an average surface temperature of about 464 degrees Celsius (867 Fahrenheit).

A team of astronomers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), supported by the French CNRS laboratories in Paris and Bordeaux, announced that they are the first team to model all phases of the greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse effect It is the process by which some gases in the Earth’s atmosphere trap the sun’s heat.

Some greenhouse gases exist in nature as water vapor. Others, such as carbon dioxide, can be produced by humans by burning polluting fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. The temporary greenhouse effect, investigated in the UNIGE-CNRS study, occurs when solar radiation increases, causing the planet’s temperature to increase significantly.

“Starting from the early stages of the process, the structure of the atmosphere and cloud cover undergo significant changes, leading to a greenhouse effect that is almost unstoppable and very difficult to reverse,” the statement said.

Irreversible

The research was designed in part to study the climates of other planets, particularly exoplanets orbiting stars other than the Sun, and to provide a tool to help determine the potential for life on these planets. But it also provides insight into the risks to Earth’s climate in the coming centuries.

Researchers noted the difference between Earth, a beautiful blue-green dot covered in oceans and life, and Venus, a barren sulfur planet and the hottest planet in our solar system. However, a study published in the review Astronomy and AstrophysicsHe showed that “a very small increase in solar radiation – resulting in an increase in Earth’s global temperature of just a few tens of degrees – would be sufficient to trigger this irreversible runaway process on Earth and make our planet as uninhabitable as Venus.”

The idea of ​​the greenhouse effect is not new. It envisions the planet’s evolution from a temperate state like Earth to one with surface temperatures above 1,000 degrees Celsius (1,832 degrees Fahrenheit). Researchers say that a small part of the greenhouse effect is beneficial and state that if this effect did not exist, the average temperature of the Earth would be below the freezing point and the Earth would become an ice-covered sphere that is hostile to life.

But too much of this effect increases evaporation from the oceans and therefore the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (a natural greenhouse gas), trapping heat like a lifesaver.

critical threshold

“For this amount of water vapor, there is a critical threshold beyond which the planet can no longer cool,” said Guillaume Chavert, former UNIGE postdoctoral researcher and lead author of the study. “Everything goes away until the oceans completely evaporate and the temperature reaches a few hundred degrees.”

While previous simulations focused only on the temperate state before the escape impact or the uninhabitable state after the escape, the researchers said they were the first to simulate the entire process. Imaging the entire process made it possible to show how, from the very beginning, a very specific dense cloud pattern arises in the high atmosphere, which enhances the acceleration effect and makes the process irreversible.

“The structure of the atmosphere has changed profoundly,” Shavero said.

The statement stated that it is currently being investigated whether greenhouse gases emitted by humans can cause the same process as a slight increase in the brightness of the Sun. Climatologists warn that we face the risk of uncontrolled climate change if the Earth’s average temperature rises by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While this is not the same as a failed greenhouse process, researchers have warned that the Earth is not far from disaster . “doomsday scenario”. Source