Using advanced computer simulations, scientists have shown how easily the greenhouse effect can turn a habitable planet into a hellish world uninhabitable. This research not only has implications for our understanding of extrasolar planets;outer planets” but also provides insight into the human-caused climate crisis on Earth.

A team of astronomers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and the CNRS laboratories in Paris and Bordeaux found that after the initial stages of climate change on the planet, the planet’s atmosphere, structure and cloud cover changed significantly, thus beginning a runaway impact. The emergence of something that is difficult to stop. The worrying thing is that this process can begin here on Earth with just a small change in the Sun’s brightness or an increase in global average temperature of just a few tens of degrees. Even these small changes could make our planet completely uninhabitable.

Therefore, the study offers a stark warning about climate change.

“So far, other important studies in climatology have focused only on the pre-escape temperate state or the post-escape habitable state,” CNRS scientist and team member Martin Turbet said in a statement. said. “For the first time, the team studied the transition itself using a 3D global climate model and examined how the climate and atmosphere changed during this period.”

Critical greenhouse effect

The persistent greenhouse effect in the team’s simulations could see the planet transform from a temperate, Earth-like hospitable state into a hellscape with a surface temperature of about 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit (1,000 degrees Celsius). This is hot enough to melt lead. These temperatures are even higher than the surface of Earth’s famous hellish neighbor, Venus.

The reason for this greenhouse effect is something very familiar: Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas. While water vapor isn’t the first greenhouse gas we think of when it comes to Earth’s climate change, just like more common greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane, water vapor prevents solar radiation absorbed by the planet’s surface from escaping back into the atmosphere. space. It traps heat from all over the world like a thermal blanket. Scientists call this the greenhouse effect.

In small doses, the greenhouse effect is beneficial; for example, it prevents the Earth from exhibiting temperatures below the freezing point of water. But too much warming caused by the greenhouse effect can cause the oceans to evaporate, releasing too much water vapor into the atmosphere. As you can imagine, this can cause greenhouses to get even hotter. It’s like a feedback loop. Yes, the impact of “illegal” greenhouse gases.

In fact, Venus is a prime example of what can happen when the greenhouse effect kicks in.

“There is a critical threshold for this amount of water vapor beyond which the planet can no longer cool,” said Guillaume Chavero, a former scientist at the Department of Astronomy at the University of Geneva who led the study. Everything drifts from there until the oceans completely evaporate and the temperature reaches several hundred degrees.

warning clouds

One of the most important and unexpected aspects of the team’s modeling was the development of a strange cloud model. This model not only increased the greenhouse effect, but also Irreversible.

“We can see very dense clouds developing in the upper atmosphere from the beginning of the transition,” Shavero said. “In fact, the latter no longer shows the temperature change characteristic of the Earth’s atmosphere and separates its two main layers: troposphere and stratosphere. The structure of the atmosphere has changed profoundly.”

As for what this means for us, the team estimates that with our simulation results, a small increase in solar radiation and a tens of degree increase in Earth temperature would be enough to create an apocalyptic effect. If this were to happen, Earth would eventually become as hostile to life as its neighbor Venus is now.

The news comes at a time when countries are trying to limit human-caused greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, showing how vital this effort is.

The team is not yet sure what impact greenhouse gas emissions alone might have on the acceleration process, and whether the process would actually “disappear” at the same temperatures. They also have not yet determined whether increasing solar brightness can continue to advance the process.

“Assuming that this unfortunate process is triggered on Earth, the evaporation of just 10 meters of the ocean surface will increase the atmospheric pressure at ground level by 1 bar,” Shavero said. said. “We think that in just a few hundred years the earth’s temperature will rise above 500 degrees Celsius. Then, when all the oceans have completely evaporated, we will reach 273 bar surface pressure and even over 1500 degrees Celsius.”