The new, long-awaited United Launch Alliance (ULA) rocket is ready for its first launch. So will the car be able to gain a foothold in the competitive market? Vulcan is planned to be centaur It will launch from the Florida Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral early on Monday morning, January 8. The ship will carry the special Peregrine lander, which is part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative and is manufactured by Pittsburgh firm Astrobotic.

The launch itself is a big deal; this could lead to the first successful private landing on the moon. Conversely, it could cast a shadow over NASA and Astrobotic’s lunar program and cause further delays and questions about Vulcan Centaur. It’s also extremely challenging for its initial launch; The rocket must not only enter orbit, but also launch and perform an extralunar injection burn with the Centaur upper stage.

The launch also comes at a crossroads for ULA. The company once dominated the US launch market, particularly with its highly reliable Atlas V rocket, but the arrival of SpaceX and its Falcon reusable rockets over the past decade has transformed the launch industry. Last year, SpaceX launched 98 of a total of 109 orbital launch attempts in the United States.

Another sign of how times are changing is that ULA’s famous Delta IV Heavy has only one launch remaining, expected to launch this spring. The company’s transition to its next-generation rocket began years ago, but the road to the Vulcan Centaur pad hasn’t been smooth sailing. There have been numerous delays, including the delivery of BE-4 first stage engines from Jeff Bezos’ aerospace company Blue Origin. The explosion that occurred during tests in the booster part of the rocket last March delayed the first flight once again.

Despite the delays, the Vulcan order book looks healthy, and there will be plenty of work ahead if the rocket can fly.

ULA CEO Tory Bruno told reporters on Nov. 15 that Vulcan has 70 launches for both government and commercial customers. The first mission is to carry out the Cert 1 launch on January 8 and send Peregrine to the Moon. If Cert 1 is successful, ULA will need to begin ramping up production of the rocket to deliver two launches per month by the end of 2025.

ULA also has a development plan to adapt and improve Vulcan Centaur. The rocket is currently optimized for high-energy orbits and has a powerful first stage that carries Centaur’s upper stage and payloads almost entirely into low Earth orbit (LEO). However, for launching satellites to constellations such as the Kuiper Broadband Amazon, a smaller, less powerful upper stage would actually provide a higher payload mass and thus more satellites would be deployed to LEO per mission.

ULA is also working to make Vulcan’s first stage recoverable, and the company plans to reuse BE-4 engines with variable thrust. The company is also working with NASA on an inflatable hypersonic heat shield as part of its reuse efforts.

But all is not well, with challenges on the more down-to-earth, secretive side of startups. Bruno noted that there are challenges managing launch infrastructure at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Space Force Base in California due to the increasing number of launches and the shift of range management responsibilities from the government to launch providers. Planning and programming complexities also arise during launch preparations, including the integration of new technologies and coordination with various stakeholders.

Meanwhile, rumors were circulating at ULA that its owners, Lockheed Martin and Boeing, were putting the company up for sale. Ars Technica reported in November that the company was close to choosing a buyer, and the Wall Street Journal reported in late December that the company had received acquisition offers from Blue Origin and others.