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Insecurity, organized crime and drug trafficking have again become the main political risks facing Latin America in 2024, as evidenced by the unprecedented crisis of extreme violence Ecuador
Insecurity, organized crime and drug trafficking have again become the main political risks facing Latin America in 2024, as evidenced by the unprecedented crisis of extreme violence Ecuador is experiencing, a study by the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile showed this Wednesday. . .
The Latin American Political Risk Index, which measures the risks facing the region, shows a significant increase among corruption and impunity.
Besides, Organized crime is responsible for about half of the murders in Latin America.In addition to the fact that eight of the ten most dangerous cities in the world are in the region, explained Jorge Sahd, director of the Center for International Studies at Catholic University and co-author of the report presented today.
“Ecuador is a perfect example of how quickly the country has deteriorated. In 2018, there were six murders per 100 thousand inhabitants, and in 2023 this figure reached 46 murders, which implies an increase of almost 800%,” Sahd said.
Yesterday, Tuesday, Ecuador experienced a day of terror that left at least ten people dead in various acts of violence, including the temporary takeover of a television station by an armed group in Guayaquil.
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared the existence of an “internal armed conflict” in the country and ordered the Armed Forces to carry out military action against several criminal groups that the authorities consider “terrorists.”
“Ecuador is becoming a major transit country for cocaine. Cocaine production has increased significantly in Colombia and Peru, and drug trafficking has spread throughout the region with threats we did not see decades ago,” warned the director of the Center for International Studies of the Catholic University.
The report, based on thousands of interviews with various political figures in the region, identifies the second risk as the rise of corruption and impunity, “a systemic problem associated with a lack of institutionalization.”
This is followed by dissatisfaction with democracy and the development of populism and authoritarianism; controllability under pressure and rapid loss of support from leaders; and increased migration flows.
At the very bottom of the index is the radicalization of social protests; international instability; deterioration of the business climate; the impact of technology on politics; and vulnerability to climate change
Latin America will have to face these risks in a scenario of economic recession and stagnation in the fight against poverty, which in 2022 affected 29% of the population, equivalent to 181 million people, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean). ECLAC).
Latin America’s GDP growth will slow to 1.9% this year, lower than the 2.2% recorded in 2023, the Santiago, Chile-based UN agency estimates.
The region will also experience an “electoral tsunami” in 2024, with elections held in El Salvador, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela.
“Voting to punish ruling parties, which has been the trend, will be interrupted and there will be a greater balance between continuity and rotation,” said Argentine lawyer and political scientist Daniel Zovatto, co-editor of the report.
The electoral marathon begins in February in El Salvador, an election that President Nayib Bukele is certain to win “with ease in the first round” despite his re-election being “totally unconstitutional”, Zovatto noted.
Zovatto, a researcher at the Center for International Studies at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, said “the stage is still open” in Panama, Uruguay and Venezuela, and also bet on the re-election of Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader and the triumph of Morena. In Mexico, the party of Andrés Manuel López Obrador , whose presidential candidate is Claudia Sheinbaum.
If our predictions are confirmed, Zovatto added, “the new regional political map will be more heterogeneous, without a predominance of pink or blue waves.” EFE
The document can be found here:
Political Risk in Latin America 2024, Sebastian Barragán on Scribd
Source: Aristegui Noticias
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