An international team of scientists, led by researchers at Oregon State University, has used a new 500-year-old data set to create a “recovery” pathway by which humanity can avoid the worst environmental and social consequences of climate change. In addition to charting a possible new course for society, “paradigm shift” plans could bolster climate modeling and debate by providing a set of actions that strongly emphasize environmental sustainability as well as social and economic justice, the researchers say.

Oregon State’s William Ripple, former OSU doctoral student Christopher Wolff, and colleagues argue that their scenarios should be included in climate models alongside the five “common socioeconomic pathways,” or SSPs, used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“We recognize that our proposed scenario may be a major challenge in implementation given current emissions trends, lack of political will, and widespread societal opposition, but the merits of this scenario cannot even be honestly discussed unless it is included in the set of options,” Ripple said. Distinguished professor of ecology at OSU College of Forestry. “We advocate radical incrementalism: achieving large-scale change in small, short-term steps. We also offer a much-needed contrast to many other climate scenarios that might be better suited to the unhelpful status quo.”

A data-driven recovery path

Ripple and co-authors from the US, the Netherlands and Australia present ways to recover in a paper published in 2017. Environmental Research Letters. They say the path is inspired by a unique compilation of Earth system variables that vividly illustrate how humanity’s resource needs have exploded since 1850, indicative of ecological overshoot.

“The supporting evidence underscores the need for urgent action,” said Wolff, a scientist at Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates in Corvallis. “Increases in population, gross domestic product and energy consumption, largely dependent on fossil fuels, have led to an extraordinary increase in greenhouse gas emissions, significantly changing land use and causing major declines in biodiversity.”

The authors note that current modeling of climate change is based on numerous assumptions and factors regarding policy options and societal development. An international team of climatologists, economists and energy system modelers developed SSPs that were used to derive greenhouse gas emission scenarios for different sets of strategies assuming sustainable and significant GDP growth by 2100.

“SSPs identify possible events that will lead to different challenges in climate change mitigation and adaptation in the future,” Wolff said. “These are based on five narratives that describe alternative socio-economic development, some more sustainable than others. Our scenario focuses on reducing the consumption of primary resources to a level that will maintain environmental pressures on the planet and where GDP per capita will stabilize over time.”

Fighting climate change, biodiversity and inequality

Wolff, Ripple and their colleagues analyzed a number of variables over the long term: fossil fuel emissions, population, GDP, land use, greenhouse gas concentrations, global temperature, wildlife abundance, income inequality and meat production.

Taken together, the data paint a complete picture of the profound changes Earth is undergoing, say the authors, who include Gillian Gregg of Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Associates, Detlef P. van Vuuren of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Manfred Lenzen of the University of Sydney. .

“The income share variable dates back to 1820 and shows that the top 10 percent consistently receive at least 50 percent of all income, indicating global economic inequality over the long term,” Ripple said. said. “The recovery path will represent a fairer and more sustainable world, with an emphasis on conservation as the natural climate solution; public welfare and quality of life; equality and higher levels of education for girls and women leading to lower birth rates and higher standards of living; and a rapid transition to renewable energy.”

Unlike some existing shared socio-economic pathways, the regenerative pathway does not rely on the development of carbon capture technologies and does not assume sustainable economic growth as SSPs do.

“By prioritizing large-scale social change, the path we propose could limit warming much more effectively than paths that promote the growth of resource consumption by rich countries,” Ripple said. “We aim to shift the curve on a wide range of vital indicators of the planet with a holistic vision that will address climate change, biodiversity loss and socio-economic injustice. “Our work is an example of how humanity can begin the journey to save the world from these ecological and social crises.”