Ten years have passed since Malaysia Airlines passenger plane MH370 disappeared on March 8, 2014. It still remains one of the world’s greatest aviation mysteries. It is incredible that a modern Boeing 777-200ER aircraft with 239 people on board could disappear without explanation. However, numerous searches over the past decade have so far failed to uncover the main wreckage or the bodies of the victims.

At a commemoration ceremony earlier this week, Malaysia’s transport minister announced the new call. If approved by the Malaysian government, the study would be conducted by US-based seabed exploration company Ocean Infinity, whose efforts in 2018 were unsuccessful.

What happened to MH370?

The plane was supposed to fly from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Air traffic control lost contact with the plane 60 minutes into the flight over the South China Sea. It was later tracked by military radar passing the Malay Peninsula and was last detected by radar over the Andaman Sea in the northeastern Indian Ocean.

Later, automatic satellite communication between the plane and the telecommunications satellite of the British company Inmarsat showed that the plane was in the southeastern part of the Indian Ocean along the 7th arc (an arc is a set of coordinates).

This formed the basis for the designation of initial search areas by the Australian Air Transport Security Bureau. The first air searches were conducted in the South China and Andaman Seas. To this day, we don’t know what caused the plane to change course and disappear.

What has the search for MH370 found so far?

Ten days after the disappearance of MH370, on 18 March 2014, the search in the southern Indian Ocean was led by Australia, with the participation of aircraft from various countries. This search lasted until April 28 and covered 4,500,000 square kilometers of ocean area. The wreckage was not found.

Two underwater searches in the Indian Ocean, 2,800 km off the coast of Western Australia, also found no evidence of the main crash site.

The first Australian-led seabed search covered 120,000 square kilometers and extended up to 50 nautical miles along the 7th arc. It lasted 1,046 days and was suspended on January 17, 2017. The second Ocean Infinity search in 2018 covered more than 112,000 square kilometers. It was completed in just over three months, but the wreckage was never found.

What about the debris?

Although the main crash site has not yet been found, numerous pieces of debris have been scattered around in the years since the plane disappeared. In fact, in June 2015, Australian Air Transport Safety Bureau officials determined that debris could end up in Sumatra due to ocean currents in the area.

The strongest current in the Indian Ocean is the South Equatorial Current. The river, which flows from east to west between northern Australia and Madagascar, will be able to pass over the debris.

Indeed, on July 30, 2015, a large piece of debris (a flaperon (moving part of an aircraft wing)) crashed into Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean. It was later confirmed to be MH370.

Twelve months ago, our modeling team at the University of Western Australia (UWA) predicted, using an oceanographic drift model, that any debris from Arc 7 would reach the western Indian Ocean.

Additional aircraft wreckage was found in the western Indian Ocean in the following months in Mauritius, Tanzania, Rodríguez, Madagascar, Mozambique and South Africa.

UWA’s drift analysis predicted exactly where the floating wreckage of Flight MH370 would end up in the western Indian Ocean. This also helped American adventurer Blaine Gibson and others directly locate dozens of pieces of debris; Three of these are confirmed to belong to MH370, while the others are considered probable.

To date, this debris found in the western Indian Ocean was the only physical evidence found of MH370. There is also independent confirmation that the crash occurred near Arc 7; because any debris flows north first and then westward, carried by the prevailing ocean currents. These results are consistent with other entrainment studies conducted by independent researchers around the world.

Why is there a new hunt for MH370 now?

Unfortunately, the ocean is a chaotic place and even oceanographic drift models cannot pinpoint the exact location of the debris. The proposed new Ocean Infinity search has significantly narrowed the target area between latitudes 36°S and 33°S. This is about 50 km south of where UWA simulations show debris being dumped along Arc 7. If no debris is found in the search, it can be continued north.

Technology has improved tremendously since the first underwater searches. Ocean Infinity uses a fleet of autonomous underwater vehicles with enhanced resolution. The proposed search will also be conducted using remotely operated surface ships.

The depth of the ocean in the area where the search will be carried out is around 4 thousand meters. Water temperature 1–2°С, current weak. This means that even ten years from now the debris field will be relatively intact. Therefore, there is a high probability that the wreckage can still be found. If future searches are successful, not only the families of the dead will perish, but also the thousands of people who participated in the search.