Asteroid Apophis, which is expected to fly past Earth in 2029, is probably nothing to worry about, according to a new study. Scientists predict that this space rock will not collide with other space rocks that could trigger the alarm, changing its orbit and sending it toward Earth; At least until the day it flies past our planet.

Apophis It is a peanut-shaped asteroid that has remained around Earth since the formation of our solar system approximately 4.6 billion years ago. Even as it rotates around its own axis, it oscillates back and forth and rotates every 30 hours. On April 13, 2029, the space rock is scheduled to approach Earth 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) from our planet’s surface. This event would mark a close pass of an asteroid of this size, which scientists have been able to warn about. This is also when NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft, formerly OSIRIS-REx, is scheduled to rendezvous with Apophis.

Although the 1,000-foot (305-meter) asteroid does not follow a trajectory that would lead to it colliding with our planet (scientists have definitively ruled out such an impact occurring within the next 100 years), until now this has been unclear. how much its path might change due to collisions with other space rocks. A new analysis that calculated the paths of all 1.2 million asteroids and comets known to be in our solar system reduced this risk to zero.

“Fortunately, such a conflict is not expected,” he said in the statement. The study’s lead author, Paul Wiegert, is an astronomer at the University of Western Ontario in Canada. “Even though we know it is heading for a safe reserve, astronomers remain vigilant. “We can’t stop watching this asteroid.”

Wiegert and colleague Ben Hyatt of the University of Waterloo in Canada describe a new method analysis In a preprint article accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal.

To reach their conclusions, Wiegert and Hyatt analyzed two independent databases that catalog the orbits of asteroids and comets in our solar system; one maintained by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the other by the European Space Agency (ESA). After examining the list of asteroids and comets whose orbits lie within 0.001 AU of Apophis, the researchers obtained 376 objects from the JPL catalog and 396 from the ESA catalog; More than 300 such objects appeared in both databases.

Modeling of selected orbits showed that none of the asteroids or comets examined would directly impact Apophis before passing by Earth in April 2029; This means that its orbit is unlikely to be directed towards our planet.

Wiegert and Hyatt also found that Apophis will pass within just over 310,000 miles (500,000 km) of another asteroid called 4544 Xanthus in December 2026. Although the two space rocks will not collide, 4544 Xanthus will pass through the intersection of the two just four hours after Apophis. “The encounter is close enough that material accompanying Xanthus (if any) could have hit Apophis,” according to the new study. “This could lead to distortion of its future path, which could affect the likelihood of it colliding with Earth.”

However, it is not yet known exactly how this material will change Apophis’ orbit.

Wiegert and Hyatt suggest that any dust particles ejected from the 1.3 km-long Xanthus could have hit Apophis, but only future observations can confirm or deny the presence of material in its orbit. While millimeter-sized particles have no significant impact on Apophis’ orbit, even a single centimeter-sized particle like the fragments on Bennu could travel at 11 kilometers per second, releasing energy “equivalent to 20 sticks of dynamite.” “, according to a new study. But future optical observation campaigns, for example, could reveal whether there is any material in Xanth’s orbit.