Research led by the University of Otago suggests that the expansion of open water areas known as polynyas in Antarctica’s sea ice could potentially allow coastal plants and animals to settle on the continent in the future. Research published in a prestigious international journal Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesHe aimed to understand where open waters might allow coastal species to settle in the future.

Otago Department of Marine Science research scientist Dr. The team, led by Grant Duffy, found surprising evidence that the area of ​​polynyas around Antarctica is increasing dramatically and follows an intriguing cycle of waxing and waning approximately every 16 years.

Dr. “These trends are remarkable, and we hadn’t noticed them before,” Duffy says. “We’re not exactly sure what causes cyclicity, but the ecological consequences can be huge.”

Cyclicity and climate events

Co-author Dr. D., of Monash University in Australia, who studies ocean-atmosphere interactions. Ariane Purich says the cyclical patterns appear consistent with atmospheric factors, including the Southern Gyre, a climate phenomenon that spans Antarctica and affects weather in New Zealand. . and Australia.

“The last record low in Antarctic sea ice cover was linked to ocean warming,” says Dr Puric.

“In coastal environments, large-scale atmospheric variability and trends can interact with changing ocean conditions to shape sea ice extent. These findings give us exciting information that will help us predict future coastal sea ice cover.”

Implications for coastal ecosystems

The study’s senior author, Professor Ceridwen Fraser, also from the Department of Marine Sciences, says the findings are also critical for predicting what will happen to Antarctica’s coastal ecosystems as the climate warms.

“We know that many non-native plants and animals can reach Antarctica by rafting on floating algae, for example,” says Professor Fraser.

“Currently, most are unable to settle due to coastal ice. Less ice could create opportunities for some coastal plants and animals, with serious consequences for Antarctica’s native coastal ecosystems.”

Dr. Duffy agrees. “Our study shows that as the climate warms, areas of open water, especially off the coast of Antarctica, are increasing,” he says. “This changing coastal environment will mean that ecosystems will need to adapt and change.”