Most unidentified anomalous events usually occur in the American West, where public lands, dark skies, and proximity to military bases make the chances of observing unusual objects in the sky higher.

“This [об’єкт у формі Tic Tac, який] “I have just covered a distance of about 60 miles… in less than a minute, it is vastly superior in performance to my brand new F/A-18F, and it does not operate according to any of the known aerodynamic principles we expect from objects flying in our atmosphere.”

In July 2023, retired U.S. Marine Gen. David Fravor testified before the House Oversight Committee about the mysterious Tic Tac-shaped object he and three others observed over the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Congressional hearings captivated the world and brought Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) out of the realm of “alien reality” and into the mainstream.

As sensor technology advances and the use of personal drones rapidly increases, our ability to explain strange phenomena becomes more difficult. The U.S. Department of Defense increasingly perceives UAP, formerly known as Unidentified Flying Objects, as a serious threat to national security.

A new study led by geographers at the University of Utah seeks to understand whether local environmental factors increase or decrease the number of reported sightings. The authors used data from the National UFO Research Center and included nearly 98,000 sighting reports over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. Researchers analyzed two conditions for each county in the United States: skyview potential, which refers to land light pollution, cloud cover, and tree cover; and the potential for objects to be found in the sky, i.e. proximity to airports and military installations.

Most of the sightings occurred in the western parts of the United States due to the physical geography of the region (lots of open space and dark skies). Hotspots reported by UAPs had reliable connections to air traffic and military activities; This shows that people notice real objects but do not realize that they are there.

“The idea is that if you’re lucky enough to see something, you’re more likely to see an unexplained phenomenon in the sky,” said Richard Medina, assistant professor of geography at the University of Utah and lead author of the study. “There is more technology in the sky than ever before, so the question is: What do people actually see? “It’s a difficult question to answer, and it’s important because any uncertainty could pose a potential threat to national security.”

Understanding the ecological context of these observations will facilitate the search for explanations for their occurrence and help identify truly anomalous objects that pose a legitimate threat. The article was recently published in a magazine Scientific Reports.

Hot spots and cold spots

The authors looked at the number of observations per 10,000 people per county and found significant clusters of under-reporting (cold spots) and high reporting (hot spots). Much more frequent sightings have been reported in some isolated areas in the west and far northeast. The cold spots were in the central plains and the southeast. All results, except cloud cover, supported the general hypothesis that people will see things if given the opportunity.

“The West has a historic relationship with the UAP – Area 51 in Nevada, Roswell in New Mexico, and here in Utah we have military activity at our Skinwalker Ranch in the Uintah Basin and the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground,” Medina said. said. “There is also a strong outdoor community that engages in year-round recreation activities on public lands. People go out and look at the sky.”

The traditional scientific community has largely avoided UAP research due to the stigma of flying saucers and space invaders. But people all over the world continue to notice mysterious objects in the sky. These small studies tend to rely on first-hand accounts or seek cultural and psychological explanations, limiting the ability to analyze patterns across a wide area.

Legitimate data sources and suspicious accounts are also subject to limited review. The authors note that data from the National UFO Research Center is a public self-reporting system that does not allow verification of hoaxes. However, the authors argue that the spatial pattern would not exist if the data were completely invalid for some psychological or sociological reason. But it’s there.

“There are many factors that can contribute to the reporting of anomalous objects,” said Simon Brewer, professor of geography at the university and co-author of the study. “By examining the spatial distribution of messages and their relationship to the local environment, we hope to provide both the public and the military with some geographic context that can help decipher or understand the messages.”

In July 2022, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Director of National Intelligence, ordered the establishment of the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) as the sole authorized UAP office to direct and synchronize the government-wide approach. problem. Previous UAP tracking efforts include Project BLUE BOOK, a U.S. Air Force-led project that investigated UFO sightings between 1947 and 1969. Project BLUE BOOK’s most famous report is the Roswell, New Mexico incident on July 8, 1947, when a flying saucer crashed into a desert town and its alien inhabitants were found by government officials. Many Roswell residents witnessed the mysterious event that may have led to the UFO sightings sweeping the country. The silence of government officials led to wild speculation about otherworldly visitors and a subsequent cover-up. The US Air Force later reported that the cause of the incident was a secret multi-balloon project to detect Soviet nuclear tests.

Many UAP observations have a natural explanation; The planet Venus, for example, is a regular offender. The past few years have seen an increase in UAP reports, likely due to the exponential increase in the number of spacecraft and orbital launch vehicles, such as the Starlink satellite train shining in the night sky, and the ubiquity of personal drones. The challenge is to analyze which messages indicate a real threat.

The authors investigate whether there are temporal considerations for fluctuations in observations based on sociocultural factors. For example, did more reports come after Congressional hearings in July 2023 or after the Space X launch? They also investigate whether sociocultural factors influence UAP sightings – is there an increase in reports after a show like The X-Files becomes popular? Are some cultures more likely to view UAP because of their beliefs?

“ “The U.S. government (military, intelligence and civilian agencies) must understand what is happening in operational areas to keep the country and its people safe,” said Assistant Professor Sean Kirkpatrick, AARO’s first director. professor of physics at the University of Georgia and co-author of the study. “In the age of ubiquitous sensors and data availability, the unknown is unacceptable. The scientific community has a responsibility to research and teach.”