Combining science and storytelling, new research explores the future of water management in the face of changing environmental dynamics. Human activities are changing the way water flows between the Earth and the atmosphere in complex ways and likely with long-term consequences that are difficult to imagine.

Land use change alters cloud formation locations and precipitation distribution. Meanwhile, weather-altering activities such as cloud seeding are altering countries’ plans for water use in the face of climate change. These and other changes in the planet’s atmospheric water cycle were once difficult to imagine, but they are increasingly becoming part of the modern management of the planet’s water resources.

Interdisciplinary research and storytelling

Colorado State University Associate Professor Patrick Keyes is an expert on climate change and society. He studied these issues for years and realized there was a potential gap when it came to understanding the long-term consequences of these changes (not just among the public, but also among the water research community).

To better understand how such activities could change the world, he commissioned aquatic scientists from around the world to write storyboards about possible futures that humanity faces but may not yet understand. Results recently published Global Sustainability as part of a creative way of understanding atmospheric water research in light of potential economic and political challenges that may be on the horizon.

The work features striking images created by the artist, combined with traditional science fiction narratives as well as alternative forms of history such as first-person diary entries. Keyes said the package offers a broad, science-based path to create a common understanding of future water management activities and challenges.

“Stories are everywhere and are an integral part of human life,” he said. “They tell you something different than a graph in a research paper. It allows you to explore how people might feel or react to these changes. “Studies like this give people the authority and opportunity to consider these changes, regardless of their background or level of understanding.”

According to Keys, the research for this study took place in three separate phases. First, she used computational text analysis to find recurring themes in journal abstracts related to the current state of atmospheric water cycle research. She then sorted the data by identifying sets of recurring terms in a table of general principles of debatable economic utility. Her goal is to better define the ways people and institutions interact with the atmospheric water cycle in the future, she said. In particular, how future actors, such as countries or private actors, can act to protect their own resources or take advantage to gain access to water, an important natural resource, in the future.

It is these relationships and interactions that Keyes wants to investigate in the third part of this study and where science fiction comes into play.

Scientific research through fiction

To further consider the potential future relevance of water management in this area, Keys asked experts to imagine a world decades in the future where actions like cloud seeding are common and long-term consequences are more evident. The result was an exercise in science fiction storytelling with the specific goal of exploring reality and predicting even the strangest possible outcomes.

“I think we have a feeling that some types of futures are more likely than others, but we have to realize that models alone cannot do this in order to adequately capture the possible trajectories in which our world can move”, – he said. “Especially when we’re talking about things like culture or perception that are hard to measure and can play a big role in actual results.”

To create the narratives, Keyes held a series of workshops with interdisciplinary water experts from all sectors and professions and introduced them to the “future thinking” approach. The experts were not separated by discipline or subject during the exercise, in the hope of sparking more creativity. Ultimately, 10 story scenarios were developed and included in the article. Keyes also worked with artist Fabio Comin on the accompanying visuals for a year.

Keyes serves in the Department of Atmospheric Research at the Walter Scott College of Engineering. He had several collaborators on the study, including postdoctoral researcher Rekha Warrier from CSU’s Department of Human Aspects of Natural Resources. Other researchers were from the University of California, Davis, the University of California, Los Angeles, the Stockholm Sustainability Center and the Potsdam Climate Impact Research Institute.

Keys said he is currently using similar approaches for another project with the Colorado Aquatics Center. One of her goals for both projects, she added, was to spark conversations about the water cycle, which has become a pivotal moment for action around the world.

“These scenarios could raise interesting questions about policy, regulation and enforcement – ​​what those might look like,” he said. “This approach can also help us notice some aspects we haven’t paid attention to and understand things better.”