In a new study, scientists revealed how prone the Red Planet is to colliding with asteroids and how lucky the Earth is in this regard.

Astronomers from Nanjing University (China) have calculated how many potentially dangerous asteroids are on the way to Mars. The text of the scientific study was published on the preprint server of Cornell University. It turns out that the Red Planet is much more vulnerable than Earth. The study took into account only large celestial bodies that could cause serious destructive consequences.

Science has accepted the view that Mars was once similar to today’s Earth, more than three billion years ago. There was water: rivers, lakes, even seas with small tides. If there was water, there was probably an atmosphere and life. So far there is no evidence of the latter, but scientists are actively investigating it.

But something happened to Mars: it became cold and lifeless, tectonics almost stopped, the magnetic field almost completely disappeared, water froze, the atmosphere flew into space, leaving only a thin and sparse layer. Researchers are still debating what causes this.

There were likely many factors, but one of them, as the authors of a recent study found, could be the devastating impact of asteroids. It is believed that the world is very lucky; It had perfect conditions for the birth and development of life. The possibility of such a coincidence occurring elsewhere in the Galaxy is also a matter of scientific debate.

One of these successful factors is the relatively good protection of the Earth from collisions with asteroids and comets: huge Jupiter deflects the flight of potentially dangerous objects. It would seem that Mars should also be under this protection, but not everything is that simple. The red planet is much closer to the inner asteroid belt of the Solar System – between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.

Astronomers are constantly monitoring asteroids for Earth, tracking the number and orbits of potentially dangerous celestial objects. Using the same method, Chinese scientists estimated the number of potentially hazardous asteroids for Mars.

They found that such objects are about 2.5-3 times more likely to collide with the Red Planet than with Earth. In particular, today there are only about 17,000 large asteroids that can approach or hit Mars, while on Earth the number is about 4,700.

Additionally, astronomers have found 52 objects currently flying towards the Red Planet that could collide with it. After more careful timing and trajectory calculations, this could give scientists a rare opportunity to follow the fall process in real time.

A new study allows us to understand the history of Mars, as well as assess the potential danger of future colonists of this planet, Earth’s neighbor. After all, one of the most popular trends in modern space programs is to establish a base there.

Since the Red Planet’s gravity is only 0.38 of Earth’s, the conclusion that asteroids fall on Mars much more frequently than on Earth is not entirely clear. Now it turns out that the proximity to the Main Belt deprives it of the “protection” of both Jupiter and its weak gravity.

A typical large asteroid impact is very dangerous: a 10-kilometer asteroid that hit Earth 66 million years ago caused a 100-million-megaton explosion, plunging our planet into an asteroid winter for years. Considering that Mars is much further from the Sun, such impacts are even more dangerous for it because they can trigger a global cooling cycle from which it is quite difficult for the planet to get out on its own.

Interestingly, scientists have previously shown that in addition to the current state with an average temperature of minus 64 degrees, Mars (as on Earth today) could be in a warmer and stable state with an average temperature of up to plus 15.